Back Orioles On The Plus Moneyline To Win Again Today At Tampa Bay

Game between Orioles and rays

Tuesday, September 6, 2016 1:41 PM GMT

Today Tampa Bay is a slight home favorite vs. Orioles considering the pitching matchup favors them for the most part. Will the team with the better record get another much-needed win or will Tampa Bay's better pitcher rule the day? Find your MLB picks here.

Baltimore Orioles
Yovani Gallardo gets the start and comes in with a 5.62 ERA and 1.62 whip as well as a 5.23 ERA versus Tampa Bay this season. Gallardo has definitely seen his struggles and over his last five starts he has given up 19 earned runs in just 31 innings of work highlighted by getting shelled in New York in his last road start for seven earned runs in just over an inning. On top of all that Gallardo has been especially bad in his road starts overall this season with a 7.18 ERA and batters hitting just over .300 against him. 

However, I think today is a good spot to go ahead and take a shot with the nine-year veteran despite his recent struggles. Looking at his past 10 games he has really only had to tough outings while allowing at most three earned runs or less in his other eight. Tampa Bay is not a great hitting team and he should be able to at least limit some damage to give his offense a chance to win this game. At the plate, Baltimore has been hot a and cold over their past 10 games but they do rank in the top part of the league in most offensive categories. As well, they're coming off a solid nine hit seven run performance yesterday so they should have some momentum.

 

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Tampa Bay Rays
Jake Odorizzi gets the start for Tampa Bay with a 3.56 ERA and 1.21 whip but with just a 2.92 ERA at home this season. Over his last five starts, Odorizzi has been very solid allowing just 10 earned runs in about 36 innings of work so even with Baltimore's better record it is not surprising he highlights Tampa Bay being favored today. At home, he's been extremely good as his numbers demonstrate, however against Baltimore the Orioles have had some good success against him in the four games they have faced him overall. Versus Baltimore, he has a 4.91 ERA allowing 12 earned runs in 22 innings of work. 

What has me backing Baltimore today on the plus money line though is the fact that they have garnered 31 hits against him in those 22 innings pitched on top of the fact they are hitting .348 against him. At the plate, Tampa Bay remains among one of the worst overall offenses in the major leagues despite the fact they have some semi-okay power numbers. In their most recent homestretch, they have been swinging the bat decently but still value wise with the way Baltimore swings the bat as well I like backing the Orioles in this spot.

 

Baltimore Orioles vs Tampa Bay Rays
Odds makers have made Baltimore a +106 underdog like at 5Dimes. For my MLB pick, I'm going to back the Orioles today on the plus money line as they've had success this season against Odorizzi. This is simply a value play in which you can get plus money MLB odds on a game that really could go either way.

 

Free MLB Pick: Orioles +106
Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes
July/August record: 30-23-2
September record: 4-0

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