Back The MLB Pick On A Coors Field ‘Under’ When Giants Visit Rockies

LT Profits Sports Group

Wednesday, April 13, 2016 7:33 PM UTC

Wednesday, Apr. 13, 2016 7:33 PM UTC

Yes, we all get that Coors Field in Denver is situated one mile above sea level, but nonetheless we still like the Giants and Rockies to stay below the inflated total on the MLB odds today.


MLB Record: 7-3, +5.01

There could actually be an ‘under’ at high elevation given the lofty total Wednesday night when veteran Jake Peavy and the San Francisco Giants (6-2, 3-1 away) pay a visit to fellow right-hander Jordan Lyles and the Colorado Rockies (3-4, 1-3 home) at Coors Field in Denver, CO at 8:40 ET in a game available on ROOT. The posted total at Heritage Sports is 11½ for this contest with the current MLB odds on the ‘under’ set at -110.


Teams Stayed ‘under’ Last Night
The series opener last night had a similarly inflated total as this one, but the ‘under’ prevailed with the Giants winning 7-2. That improved San Francisco to 6-2 for the year, as the preseason favorites to win the National League West are already in first place in the division, leading the second place Dodgers by two games in the early going. If the preseason predictions are correct, those two teams should be in a tight battle for division supremacy all year.

The Rockies on the other hand were the consensus pick to finish in last place, but they opened the season by winning two out of three games over the Diamondbacks on the road in Arizona. Unfortunately the Rockies have since not protected their home field at Coors well, being the losing MLB pick in three of their four home games following last night’s loss.

Lyles Usually a Fast Starter
Now, we get that Lyles looks like a weak third starter on paper, but he has usually been a fast starter that has immediately had good stuff coming right out of spring training, and as a result he is 5-3 with a 3.93 ERA in 13 April starts, which is not bad at all considering he has pitched for Colorado the last two years.

However he did not have his typically strong start out of the gate this year as he lasted just 3.1 innings in his seasonal debut vs. San Diego on Friday allowing five earned runs on seven hits and four walks as he had terrible command. The news was not entirely terrible though as Lyles did hit 96 MPH with his fastball, indicating his early arm strength is very good as usual.

Thus, we like Lyles to have better command here in his second start while maintaining his velocity, and remember that this is a Colorado pitcher that finished with a 3.79 FIP last season despite his 5.14 ERA.


Peavy Can Also Improve Off First Outing
Similarly, Peavy is also capable of pitching much better than he did in his 2016 debut when he was roughed up for four earned runs on 10 hits in just five innings by the Dodgers last Thursday. One of the main reasons the Giants were the favorites to win the division this season was because of the depth of the starting pitching, and teams can do a lot worse than having a former Cy Young Award winner in Peavy as a fourth starter.

Sure that Cy Young came nine years ago as a member of the San Diego Padres in 2007, but Peavy showed that he still has his stuff last year by posting a 3.58 ERA and 1.12 WHIP while allowing a 239 batting average, belying his deceptive 8-6 record in 19 starts. Peavy has also allowed three runs or less in all three starts vs. Colorado over the last two years. Besides, this total is so big that these seemingly underrated pitchers could even afford a mistake or two.

Trending the ‘Under’
Finally, the ‘Under’ is 13-4 in the Giants’ last 17 road games vs. right-handed starters and 5-0 in their last five games following a win. The ‘Under’ is also 4-1 in the Rockies’ last five games vs. teams with a winning percentage above .600.

Given that both of these starting pitchers are better than they showed in their 2016 debuts, look for those ‘Under’ trends to continue with this very high total when San Francisco visits Colorado on Wednesday.

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Free MLB Pick: ‘Under’ 11½ (-105)
Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

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