Back Kazmir & Oakland A’s (-1 ½ Even Odds) vs. Twins

Joe Gavazzi

Friday, August 8, 2014 5:29 PM GMT

If you need a game that you can take to the bank tonight, join me for this winner! We look to the Friday evening battle between the Minnesota Twins and the Oakland A's, as we believe that the runline once again offers us the best MLB betting value.

We look to add to our 5-0 sweep of last night in which we outscored the opposition by a count of 21-5.  On the Top of the Ticket will be the Series Dominator who has outscored their opposition by a count of 89-27 in amassing 10 consecutive victories against this foe.  Strong pitching fundamentals add to the strength of the play, as does a situation that is 54-16, good for 77% winners.  

 

Minnesota Twins (Gibson) at Oakland A’s (Kazmir) (-1 ½ R, EVEN) 10:05 ET

MLB Pick: 10* Oakland (-1 ½ R, EVEN)

After starting the season 23-21, Minnesota has fallen back to the perennial position as also ran with a slide of 28-41.  The record of 51-62 for the season puts them solidly in last place in the Central division.  Oakland is clearly at the other end of the spectrum.  Oakland had the best record in MLB in the previous two seasons with 190 wins.  This season, Oakland is the only team playing better than .600 ball with a record of 70-44.  Even more impressive is that their net run differential is +167 runs, which is more than double the margin of their closest competitor in that category.  With the addition of Lester to the starting rotation, it figures to add even more motivation to an already superior pitching staff. 

Oakland is 38-20 at home this season and is on a current winning streak of 19-6 on this field.  Their record vs. Minnesota has been nothing short of mind-boggling.  Oakland has won 15/17 recent games against Minnesota, including 10 consecutive contests in which they have outscored the Twins 89-27.  That includes last night’s 3-0 victory, one of our 5 easy pieces from last night.  Expect the dominance to continue this evening when these two teams take the field at the O.co. 

Gibson has pitched decent ball for the Twins of late, working 14 IP in his last 2 starts allowing just 3 runs on 8 hits with a 13/2 KBB.  Though he has pitched better on the road in his previous 7 starts, the YTD numbers still find Gibson with a 4.38 ERA in 72 IP of work in 13 away starts.  Thus, we have a notable edge in home/road dichotomy when we survey the work of Kazmir from this mound.  Ten home starts for Kazmir span 70 1/3 IP.  The peripherals are quite solid.  These include a 1.92 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, and .213 BAA.  These are all better than his YTD numbers, which tell us that Oakland has won 16/21 Kazmir starts in which he has a 2.37 ERA, 1.02 WHIP and 118/31 KBB.  A strong history vs. Minnesota shows that in his last 6 starts vs. the Twins, Kazmir is 4-0 with a 1.95 ERA. 

Run line players will note that 54/70 Oakland wins (77%, the highest in MLB) have come by 2 or more runs.  There is enough evidence in this analysis to give us solid MLB picks value when looking at the run line in a contest in which Oakland should handily defeat an opponent they have recently dominated.      

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