Between the Orioles and the Mets, which team will cash for us on the MLB betting lines tonight? Baltimore won their series vs. the Rays, but they lost to the Mets on Tuesday night.
The Baltimore Orioles Can Win Because…
They are sending a very hot and confident pitcher to the rubber in this game. Ubaldo Jimenez has knocked around several teams over the years, so he is the kind of pitcher who can easily be viewed with skepticism, especially as the season gets into July and August. He might hit a wall and lose the arm strength which is part of the start of the season. However, right now, Jimenez is on a big-time roll. He has made four starts this season, and in three of them, he’s given up zero earned runs. That gives him a 1.59 ERA, which is one of the best marks in the American League among pitchers with at least 20 innings pitched.
Just in case you think Jimenez did all his work early in the season and has tailed off, that’s not really true. He did have a bad game against Toronto on April 22, but then on April 29, he was excellent once again. He pitched seven strong innings, giving up no earned runs to the Chicago White Sox. He also allowed only three hits and one walk. He was extremely sharp, possessing great command and location. If he’s anything like that in this game against the Mets, Baltimore will love its chances of winning. Jimenez is as good a bet as anything (or anyone) the Orioles can put on the mound right now.
Baltimore should also like its odds because New York starter Jacob deGrom has not done well in his last two starts. He hasn’t gotten out of the sixth inning in either one, allowing at least five runs in each of them. DeGrom was a lot better earlier in the season. He, not Jimenez, is an example of regression.
The New York Mets Can Win Because…
They are getting great pitching this season. The Mets’ staff ERA is 3.01, third-best in the National League. New York’s batting order is not fearsome, but with a combination of pitching and defense, a team can win in spite of relatively modest hitting. The Mets have 16 quality starts to their credit this season, and perhaps their best number is that a month into the season, their staff has allowed a total of just 51 walks in 27 games, tied for first in the National League. The Mets aren’t giving away free bases, and that adds up over time.
Jimenez has been great for Baltimore, but deGrom is not chopped liver. He threw back-to-back (non-complete-game) shutouts earlier in the season, so even though he’s struggled in his recent starts, his ERA is still a respectable 3.34. Neither pitcher pitched against the other team last season, due to the interleague matchup, so that’s a wash.
Baseball Betting Outlook
The stats say that Jimenez is pitching better than deGrom and is more likely to pitch better. Take the Orioles with your MLB picks for that very simple reason.
MLB Pick: Baltimore -110 at WagerWeb