Back Braves +125 Over Nationals With MLB Picks

Jeff Grant

Monday, September 15, 2014 2:38 PM GMT

The Atlanta Braves face an uphill climb in landing one of two National League Wild Card spots, but they’ve had great success against the Washington Nationals when playing at Turner Field in recent years. Could the dog offer the best value for our Monday night MLB picks?

Trying to Wrap Things Up
Washington owns a 10.5-game lead over the Atlanta Braves in the NL East standings, as it comes off a 3-0 victory over the New York Mets as -164 road favorites Sunday, while going UNDER the MLB odds total for the first time in six affairs.

The Nationals are 12-23 against the Braves since the beginning of last season, which is important to consider when making your sports picks, especially since they’ve produced a 5-11 mark at this ballpark over that span.

MLB handicappers will find that the club is 14-8 on the road with a money line of -100 to -125 in 2014, with the UNDER going 11-10-1 in that situation.

 

Backs Are Against the Wall
Atlanta is fighting for its life in the NL Wild Card race, but it didn’t help itself in becoming the second team to get swept by the Texas Rangers this season, as it returns home after dropping a 10-3 decision as -133 road favorites Sunday.

The Braves will need a big game from first baseman Freddie Freeman, who is batting .476 with four home runs in 16 games against the Nationals this season, while he’s also launched three round trippers in 25 career at-bats against tonight’s opposing starter.

Over the last two-plus seasons, the franchise is a money-making 13-6 as home underdogs of +100 to +125, with no clear edge in terms of the betting total (9-9-1 Over/Under).

 

Strasburg 
Nationals starting pitcher Stephen Strasburg (11-11, 3.46 ERA) will look to bounce back from a 6-2 home defeat to the Braves last time out, as he allowed three runs and seven hits over six innings of work.

The right-hander is 3-8 with a 4.45 ERA in 14 road games, while he’s served up 23 total home runs in 195 overall frames.

Strasburg is winless over his last nine starts in this division rivalry, and is 0-3 with a 7.17 ERA in four outings versus the Braves in 2014.

 

Santana
Braves starting pitcher Ervin Santana (14-8, 3.76 ERA) is also looking to gain revenge in this affair, as he suffered a 6-4 setback on the road to the Nationals last time out—giving up six runs (five earned) and eight hits over five frames.

The right-hander is 10-2 with a 3.51 ERA in 14 home starts, with opposing hitters batting just .252 against him (.280 on the road).

In three outings versus Washington, Santana has put together a 1-2 record and 6.35 ERA.

 

Prediction
I’m going to recommend that readers back the Braves as one of their MLB picks, as they’ve gone 73-34 in their last 107 home games following a road trip of seven or more days.

MLB Pick:  Atlanta Braves

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