Back Blue Jays As Your MLB Pick When They Face Underdog Rangers

Joe Gavazzi

Wednesday, May 4, 2016 4:24 PM GMT

The Texas Rangers and Toronto Blue Jays continue their 4-game early week set with the 3rd game on Wednesday evening. Visit my breakdown and MLB pick here.

Texas Rangers (Lewis) vs. Toronto Blue Jays (A. Sanchez) (-1 ½ R/+120) 
The Texas Rangers and Toronto Blue Jays continue their 4-game early week set with the 3rd game on Wednesday evening scheduled for a 7:05 ET start at the Rogers Centre. After falling 2-1 to Texas on Monday night, Toronto responded with a 3-1 victory last night, doing all their scoring in the late innings. Thus, flashing the long-awaited “BUY” sign on the Toronto offense. 

These teams are each in the middle of the pack on offense with Toronto sporting a .709 OPS and Texas a .713 OPS as they entered this week’s 4-game set. Toronto does, however, hold a meaningful edge in the bullpen with a .753 OPS to the whopping 28th ranked bullpen numbers of Texas at .832 OPS.

But, the main reason we like this game so much is the pitching matchup. Texas starter, Colby Lewis, may have a record of 2-0 with a 3.19 ERA, but that far belies the more accurate number which shows him to have the 87th ranked OPS at .834 among qualifying pitchers. More bad news for Lewis has been his history against Toronto.  In 10 recent starts against the Blue Jays, Lewis is 3-6 with a 7.13 ERA. 

Lewis is opposed in tonight’s matchup by Aaron Sanchez, an emerging star in the Blue Jays’ aging rotation. For the season, Sanchez sports a sterling .626 OPS which is confirmed by his record of 2-1 with a 2.59 ERA. Sanchez pitched a return to form outing in his last start. He worked 7 IP, allowing no runs in a 6-1 victory over Tampa Bay. 

 

Conclusion
Any time the numbers point to the Blue Jays at home, we are eager to do it on the run line. In the previous 2 years, 80 of 99 Toronto home wins have been by 2 or more runs. They have backed that up this season, as all 6 of their home wins have come by 2 or more runs. The Blue Jays have clearly underperformed this season at 13-15. 

With 3 late runs scored last night has hopefully flashed the BUY sign on this team with huge offensive potential that led the Jays to 93 wins last season, including a 53-28 record on this field (tied with Houston for the best home mark in the American League). I invite you to put the MLB odds in your favor and join me in my MLB pick on the Toronto Blue Jays tonight.  

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Free MLB Pick: Blue Jays -1.5
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