Avoid Betting Trends & Pick Giants vs. Marlins to Go 'Over' at the Fish Tank

Willie Bee

Wednesday, July 1, 2015 1:20 PM GMT

San Francisco will try and even the series in Miami against the Marlins on Wednesday, and current MLB odds have the Giants favored to do so at the Fish Tank.

With all due respect to anyone reading this preview of Wednesday's matchup between the San Francisco Giants and Miami Marlins, it's tomorrow's game that has me far more intrigued. That's when both teams send a couple of marquee names to the mound following long DL stints, and I plan to have my butt parked in front of a TV tuned to the MLB Network to see it.

But first, we need to get through the Hump Day clash which gets underway inside the Fish Tank at 7:10 PM (ET). Down 1-0 in the series following Tuesday's 5-3 loss to the Marlins, San Francisco sends Chris Heston to the hill as -125 chalk, the nickel line at 5Dimes meaning a +120 take-back on Miami according to the latest look at SBR's live MLB odds. Dan Haren counters for the Fish, a 7½ run total priced a bit higher on the 'under' at 5Dimes and most other baseball betting outlets.

Dee Gordon's early 3-run blast proved to be the biggest hit in Tuesday's tussle when the teams started their second and final meeting between the clubs this year. The victory gives Miami the opportunity to claim this set as well as the season series after they split a 4-game series in San Francisco in early-May. Game 1 continued a strong 'over' leaning when the clubs collide at Marlins Park, now 9-2 while the Giants have a slim 6-5 edge on the moneyline since the stadium opened in 2012.

 

Tough On Giants, Haren Shoots For 2nd Win Vs. SF This Year
We're catching Heston for a third consecutive start, and the past two have been wins for anyone backing the Giants with a moneyline play on the MLB odds. He opened the series with the Dodgers nearly two weeks ago, and his lineup gave Heston plenty of support in a 9-5 decision. The righthander out of ECU then closed the set against the Padres last Wednesday, besting James Shields and San Diego with a very strong afternoon (7 IP, 2 ER, 6 K).

Heston missed the Marlins when they came to San Francisco in May, but has fared very well against the two other NL East squads he has faced. The 27-year-old pitched into the eighth vs. the Braves on May 28 to lead a 7-0 victory, then no-hit the Mets in New York about two weeks later.

Haren has definitely pitched better than his 6-5 record might indicate, the Fish sitting 8-7 (+1.4 units) in his 15 starts. He has earned three quality starts the last four times out, and Miami has lost them all. The former Pepperdine standout has been much better at home than on the road, but he was plenty good enough when he caught the Giants in San Francisco earlier this season. Haren picked up the win with seven frames of 2-run baseball, the third consecutive year he has faced the Giants in a different uniform. Just as his luck has run this season, however, Haren pitched well against them as a member of the Nationals and Dodgers only to be left with two no-decisions -- both eventual losses -- despite 13+ innings and only two earnies allowed in the previous assignments.

 

Umpire Notes, Mother Nature & A Free Pick
Fine wine gets better with age, but Angel Hernandez ain't fine wine. He's not even in the category of Boone's Farm, and never will be. The 24-year veteran has split his 14 plate assignments so far, the last two finishing 'over' following an 'under' run of four games. Home teams, however, have been a profitable trend for baseball bettors, taking nine of 14, six out of eight as chalk. The Marlins have dropped four of his last five appearances under the mask in South Beach, the 'under' prevailing in four of his last six.

Heat and humidity, not rain, will keep the roof closed for this series and likely the rest of the summer if not the season. I'm not one to mess with streaks or strong trends when it comes to my free MLB picks, which is why I'm all over the 'over' on Wednesday.

MLB Pick: Giants-Marlins Over 7½ (+108) at 5Dimes