August 4 Odds: Two Picks Involving Likely Playoff Teams for Friday

Jay Pryce

Thursday, August 3, 2017 9:39 PM UTC

Thursday, Aug. 3, 2017 9:39 PM UTC

Houston scored 19 runs on 17 hits the last time starter Brad Peacock pitched against the Blue Jays on July 9. A pair of struggling southpaws square off at Fenway Park in the second of a four-game series between the White Sox and Red Sox. Here are picks for both games.

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Blue Jays at Astros

Long reliever Cesar Valdez will make his sixth career start vs. the Astros on Friday with Francisco Liriano recently traded to Houston. The right-handed Valdez was shelled for 6 earned runs on 7 hits in 2.0 innings Sunday in a spot effort against the Angels. The Jays rallied to win 11-10, making Valdez’s clubs (Diamondbacks, Jays) 4-1 SU all-time as a starter despite allowing 7.00 runs per game.

Houston gives the pill to Brad Peacock less than two weeks after sending him back to the bullpen with Dallas Keuchel coming off the DL. Lance McCullers is now on the mend, opening the door for the right-hander to rejoin the rotation. Peacock is 9-1 with a 2.62 ERA for the year. He’s started 11 contests. The Astros have won his last six outings as chalk and are 11-6 SU in his career as the betting favorite, returning 11 percent profit at -143 average odds.

Houston leads MLB with 5.86 runs per game, and this is a spot where it should end up on the higher side of the number. The Jays allow 5.21 runs per tilt as road underdogs this season, with the number climbing to 6.50 in 10 games since July 1. The staff is reeling, and Valdez is not starter material. Peacock, meanwhile, has been lights out, owning an Astros-best 2.53 FIP for pitchers tossing 30 innings or more. He did not look sharp in long relief last time out vs. the Tigers, allowing 2 earned runs on 3 hits in 4 innings. Peacock struggled to get ahead of hitters, recording just four first-pitch strikes to 16 batters. Expect the Jays to pick up a few runs and push the score well above the total. The Astros will produce the lion’s share. 

Free MLB Pick: 'Over' 9.5Best Line Offered: Pinnacle

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 White Sox at Red Sox

Boston's Eduardo Rodriguez, returning to the mound for the fourth time since coming off the disabled list due to a right knee injury, is desperate to round back into form. The southpaw has allowed 11 earned runs on 19 hits in 14.2 innings since July 17. His ERA has jumped a half point from 3.66 to 4.16 in this span.

The White Sox turn to Carlos Rodon for the start, their best left-hander in the rotation. Rodon, who made his first appearance of the season on June 28 after missing nearly the entire first half due to bursitis in his left bicep, worked arguably his best outing of the season last time out in a 3-1 win over the Indians. He whiffed nine, while allowing a single run on 6 hits in 6.2 frames. Rodon lowered his ERA from 6.29 to 5.23 in the victory.

The White Sox present some value here if Rodon can carry over momentum. He’s worked nine quality starts in 13 outings all-time when coming off a game in which he and the pen allow a single run or less. Of course, he’ll need some help from the bats at Fenway Park. He may get some against the struggling Rodriguez. Chicago is 18-19 SU and posting 4.76 runs per game vs. staffs allowing 5 runs or more in the opposing starter's last game. Rodriguez and Co. gifted 9 runs to the Royals on Saturday. The White Sox's bullpen crew is suspect, so back Chicago through the first five innings at plus money for optimal value.

Free MLB Pick: White Sox 1st 5Best Line Offered: BetOnline

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