August 17 Odds: Hunker Down on This Trio of Thursday Totals

tyson ross

Doug Upstone

Thursday, August 17, 2017 3:17 PM GMT

Thursday, Aug. 17, 2017 3:17 PM GMT

Thursday during the baseball season means more limited options with fewer games on the docket. However, no problem today finding three that should pad the wagering account.

With Wednesday's rainout in Minnesota, ended up splitting the other two games, giving yours truly a still profitable record of 14-11 for MLB picks on baseball totals. I will not be taking that same Indians/Twins contest that is being made up this afternoon, because the total has dipped from 9.5 to 9 and lost its value. Here is today's card vs. the MLB odds.

 

Petco Park Quiet Yet Again

To my surprise yesterday, the Phillies and Padres did not have many base-runners after a pair of OVERS in the two previous games, as San Diego won 3-0. While an Edwin Jackson (3.86 ERA) vs. Jhoulys Chacin (4.06) showdown does not inspire confidence in another low-scoring affair, let's look the numbers. Jackson will get slammed some days, yet in five starts with Washington this season he has an excellent 3.30 ERA, and he is 9-1 UNDER the past two years when the total is 8.5 to 10. (Currently it is 8.5) After pitching at hitter-friendly Coors Field most of his career, Chacin is enjoying the benefits of Petco and has 1.86 ERA there.

Free MLB Pick: 'Under' 8.5Best Line Offered: 5Dimes

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Total Too Low in Frisco

I completely understand why the oddsmakers would make a total of 7 on this contest. Philadelphia and San Francisco are 29th and 28th, respectively, in scoring in the majors. Plus, the Phillies' Aaron Nola (3.02) is having a very good year on a horrible team, and Jeff Samardzija (4.74) has been better lately with 3.98 ERA in his last three starts. Where going OVER makes sense to me is the following: Samardzija is still rotten and while the Phils' offense is meager, they are 15-5 OVER in road games after two straight contests where they stranded five or less runners on base. As bad as the Giants' offense has been, they are 10-2 OVER vs. a NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.20 or better this season.

Free MLB Pick: 'Over' 7Best Line Offered: Bookmaker

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Scoring Bundle of Runs Texas Style

The Texas Rangers' offense has hit another gear, averaging better than 11 hits a contest and 6.9 runs in their last seven games. They will face Reynaldo Lopez (3.00) for the White Sox, and if he got any sleep after watching Texas highlight's from last night, I would be shocked. The total of 11 might sound high even with how the Rangers are swinging the lumber, nonetheless, Texas starter Tyson Ross is not exactly mowing down opposing batters with a 7.10 ERA in eight starts. Don't be afraid of abig number.

Free MLB Pick: 'Over' 11Best Line Offered: Bovada

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