Attractive Run Line Odds Make Blue Jays the Pick to Sweep Twins

Ross Benjamin

Thursday, August 6, 2015 12:12 PM GMT

This MLB handicapping professional is excited to share his run-line MLB pick for Thursday, as the Minnesota Twins are expected to get swept by the Toronto Blue Jays.

Jays After a Four Game Sweep of Twins on Thursday
Toronto will look to complete a four game sweep of Minnesota on Thursday at the Rogers Centre. The opening pitch is slated for 7:07 PM ET. This game today is a tale of two teams heading in opposite directions. Toronto has won four in a row and is 7-1 during their last eight games. Contrarily, Minnesota has dropped six in a row and is 2-9 during their last eleven games. Eight of those nine Twins losses have come by 2 runs or more.

 

Starting Pitchers
Kyle Gibson has put together a pretty decent year for the Twins. However, the right-hander has displayed shaky form over his previous three starts, posting a large 7.27 ERA and lofty 1.50 WHIP. The Minnesota hurler has made one start versus Toronto this season, and although he allowed just 1 earned run in 5 2/3 innings pitched, Gibson also gave up 8 hits and walked 4. That type of performance line indicates to me one thing. He was extremely fortunate to get off the hook so easily.

The veteran southpaw Mark Buehrle will make his 22nd start of 2015 for Toronto on Thursday. Buehrle has given the Blue Jays just what they expected and possibly more. He’s compiled a rock solid 3.32 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in twenty-one starts. Buehrle has faced Minnesota one time in 2015, and tossed a complete game during a 6-4 Toronto win. Toronto is currently a -190 money line favorite according to MLB betting odds at Bovada. Buehrle has gone an extremely profitable 38-9 in his career team starts as a money line home favorite of -175 to -250, and his teams have a large 2.8 run per game differential in those 47 outings.

 

Telling Home/Away Splits
Minnesota was a huge surprise during the first half of the 2015 season. Much of their success can be attributed to their stellar record at Target Field. The Twins have gone a more than respectable 34-22 (.607) at home this year. Unfortunately, the road hasn’t been so kind. Minnesota is a terrible 20-31 (.392) in away games heading into today. They’ll be facing a pitcher (Buehrle) tonight that has impeccable control, evidenced by him allowing just 1.0 walk per start this year. The Twins are a horrible 3-18 on the road in 2015 when facing an American League starting pitcher averaging less than 1.75 walks per outing.

Toronto has inexplicably struggled on the road, evidenced by their disappointing 22-29 record in away games. The script has been much different at home where they’ve compiled a very good 35-21 (.625) mark. Thursday will be the finale of a eight game home stand which has seen them go 6-1 so far. Five of those six wins have come by 2 runs or more. During this current stay at the Rogers Centre, they’ve averaged 5.7 runs per game, and have a very impressive .480 team slugging percentage.

 

Run-Line Betting Angle
1. Minnesota’s Kyle Gibson has a 3.43 ERA in twenty-one starts this season.
2. Toronto’s Mark Buehrle has a 1.00 WHIP over his last ten starts.
3. Toronto has a .263 team batting average in 2015.

Before placing your MLB pick, note that any run-line favorite (Toronto) of -120 to +115, possessing a team batting average of .265 or less, and has a pitcher with a WHIP of 1.10 or less over his previous ten starts, versus an American League opponent who’s starting pitcher has a season ERA of 4.20 or better, resulted in the favorite going 37-14 (72.5%) since 1997. The favorite also had a huge +3.4 run per game differential in those 51 affairs.

MLB Picks: Play on Toronto -1.5 (+115) at BetOnline