Atlanta Braves vs San Francisco Giants : Expect Few Runs

San Francisco Giants players celebration

Doug Upstone

Saturday, May 27, 2017 4:12 PM GMT

Despite not being close to .500, San Francisco thinks they are one hot streak away from climbing back into the NL West race. Those betting baseball are less convinced based on the numbers.

The Giants have the second-worst run differential in the National League at -71, which suggests their offense will have to essentially double their current efforts of a mere 3.3 runs a game and do a whole lot better in run prevention, conceding 4.7 per game.

Will Atlanta add to San Fran's woes or be the remedy to start beating the MLB odds with regularity?

 

Pitching Matchup - Foltynewicz vs. Blach

Solid pitching confrontation of two hurlers in their mid-20's who have thrived in the roles they are in tonight. Mike Foltynewicz (3-4, 3.86 ERA) has won his past three outings and begun to show he should be a competent middle rotation starter. Where he has made a mess is when the walks pile up. Most scouts believe his stuff is good enough to be at less than a hit an inning, yet opposing hitters are batting .285 against him, mostly because his pitches lack the movement and tilt for more swings and misses. Foltynewicz is 2-1 with a 3.42 ERA versus San Francisco and he has an excellent 1.99 ERA in four road starts in 2017.

Ty Blach (2-2, 4.10) moved into the starting rotation when Madison Bumgarner could not steer off-road bike correctly. Blach lacks outstanding stuff and pitches to contact, as his 14 strikeouts in over 41 innings this season showcases. The left-hander has a low 90's fastball that he can really spot for weaker groundouts or easy to track fly balls, which makes up for pedestrian secondary pitches. At AT&T Park, Blach is despotic with 1.59 ERA and .180 BA surrendered.

 

Lack of Power Limits Run Production

Atlanta is third in the NL in on-base percentage which should equate to scoring more than 4.6 RPG. What is holding them back is being ranked 12th in home runs, which does not permit the Braves to reach their offensive potential. This is even more true with Freddy Freeman off the lineup card. A recent stretch this week of 51 base knocks in four games only netted 20 runs.

San Francisco's situation is even worse, which is why they are popular play against a team for MLB picks. The Giants are tallying only 3.3 RPG with a historically awful team batting average of .228 (only .285 OBP) and these dreadful numbers are supported by being the weakest home run hitting club in the senior circuit.

 

Betting Odds, History and Bullpen Numbers

Sportsbooks released San Francisco at -130 home choice with total Un8 (-120). The Giants have split their eight latest contests by the bay with the Braves and the total is also dead even at 4-4. San Fran has a middle of road bullpen ERA in the NL with Atlanta a half a run higher and at No. 11 in the league.

 

The Winner Is......

Given the fact of the starting pitchers home/road scenarios, San Francisco's feeble offense and Atlanta not exactly a scoring machine, I will consider a lower scoring affair and roll with this angle that the Giants 14-4 UNDER at home when the total is 7 to 8.5 this season.

 

Free MLB Pick: Under 8Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

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