Athletics and Yankees to Go 'Over' the Total in Overvalued Pitching Matchup

Charles Stark

Thursday, July 9, 2015 12:16 AM GMT

Thursday, Jul. 9, 2015 12:16 AM GMT

A total under 8 in the American League always makes me double check. Today we have such a game when the Athletics take on the Yankees. I'm going to back over the total in this game as I think that the oddsmakers have set this line a little bit too low with these two overvalued pitchers.

Odds
MLB odds makers have come out with this game at 7.5 for the total which makes some sense considering the pitching matchup on paper. Still, I think the value here really sides with the over mostly because these pitchers are just a bit overvalued with this low total today. This line is set at that total at juice of -110 at most sportsbooks and at Sportsbetting, and BetOnline that is what you'll find.

 

Overvalued Pitchers
Jesse Chavez takes the mound for the Oakland Athletics and he is having a terrific season so far with a 3.20 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP. Surprisingly he is only 4-8 on the season. His career numbers are quite a bit higher than how he is pitch this season with a 4.40 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP. Recently we are starting to see his career numbers start to catch up with his 2015 season numbers and in his last three games he has allowed 12 runs in just 16 innings. With some strong left-handed hitters I think the Yankees should have some success against him today, especially in Yankee Stadium. Masahiro Tanaka will be on the mound for the Yankees. He comes in with a 3.94 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP. I've mentioned before because of my time in Japan how Japanese pitchers can be overused while pitching in that league, and I think we're starting to see signs of that from Tanaka. In his last three games he has allowed 14 runs in just 16 innings and he simply has not looked very comfortable on the mound this season. Like the Yankees against Chavez, look for the Athletics to have some good quality at bats against him today.

Must Read: MLB Picks: Updated World Series Futures Odds

Quality At Bats
Both the Yankees and the Athletics are among the top offenses in the major leagues. The Yankees rank second in the league in runs scored per game with Oakland ranking eighth. What I like when taking the over the total on a ballgame is seeing both teams in the upper part of the league offensively, but more importantly that neither one of them is higher ranked in EVERY major offensive category... this is what we find between Oakland and New York. Oakland is ranked seventh in hits per game and the Yankees are ranked 11th, and Oakland is ranked seventh in batting average and the Yankees 15th. Conversely the Yankees are ranked fourth in on base plus slugging percentage with Oakland 13th, and New York is ranked third in total bases with Oakland 10th.

Chavez is having a good season so far and Tanaka has a big name, but in this spot today I think they are a bit overvalued at that low total of 7.5. Look for both Oakland and New York to get to these two pictures and put some runs across the plate early in the ballgame and get over this total by the seventh-inning stretch.

MLB Pick: 'Over' 7.5 (-105) at 5Dimes

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