We head to Houston for our MLB pick of the day for Monday, April 13th. I am taking the over in the Astros vs. Athletics game and share my reasonsing and odds-analysis here.
It’s Just One Game
MLB odds makers have come out with 7.5 on the total for this match up. After one game maybe it makes a little bit of sense, both Scott Kazmir and Scott Feldman were solid in their first games this season. Kazmir comes into this game with a 0.00 ERA and Feldman at a 1.35 ERA. At this rate they are both Cy Young candidates which of course isn’t realistic. Kazmir and Feldman both have a career ERA of over 4.00 and they are deadlocked at a 1.36 WHIP for their time in the Majors. Kazmir had a nice season last year after nearly being out of the league and was one of the feel good stories of 2014. Feldman doesn’t strike out a lot of people, last year he was second worst in the American League in strikeout percentage, even some relievers had more strikeouts than him. I expect Oakland to put the ball in play a lot against Feldman and I like the way the Astros are starting to come around at the plate.
Hit and Run(s)
Oakland has been one of the top offenses in MLB for the past couple of years and it looks like this year is no difference. They are ranked in the top five in most major offensive categories including runs, hits, at bats, total bases, and RBI’s. Recently in the last three games they are averaging more than 7 runs and 14 hits a game, again both top five marks in the league. On the year the Astros are averaging just under 3 runs a game but recently they have had a bit of an upswing. In the past three games Houston is averaging over 4 runs a game (4.33), and over 10 hits (10.67), the runs are a good sign and the hits for this time frame is eighth best in the league.
Get Up and Get On
Oakland right now is 4th ranked in the league in at bats per game, and in last three games they are ranked 3rd at 41 per game. The Astros are 12th ranked in this category on the year, but again, recently they have had an upswing in getting to the plate, in the last three games they are ranked 4th in the league at 40 per game. As well, in the last three games both teams have been solid in total bases with Oakland at 20 per game (ranked 2nd), and Houston at 19 per game (ranked 4th).
Both teams are doing what they need to on the offensive end recently, making this an interesting opportunity for MLB picks. They are getting up to the plate and moving runners giving themselves opportunities to score more runs. In the last three games Oakland is slugging .480 and Houston is at .467, very respectable team numbers. It concerns me a bit that Houston strikes out quite a bit (second worst rate in the league), but at home they should have enough quality at bats to push some runs across the board. On the flip side the A’s lead the league in the least amount of strike outs per game offensively so combined with Feldman’s lack of putting up K’s we should see Oakland have some good chances to put up quite a few runs.
MLB Pick: Oakland/Houston over 7.5 at 5Dimes