The Oakland A’s visit the LAAngels in the second game of this AL West matchup in Anaheim. Our handicapper analyzes the trends & shares his value play for MLB Picks.
The Oakland A’s visit the Los Angeles Angels in the second of their three game set on Tuesday night. Early MLB odds have the home team Angels favored at -120, with the initial O/U set at 8 runs. The money line is moving quickly to the A's favor, with some books already moving the O/U line to 7.5. The weather is supposed to be a comfortable 60F at game time, with high humidity at nearly 80%. The air will definitely be thick on Tuesday night and could keep some balls in the yard.
Drew Pomeranz takes the mound for the A’s, coming off of a 6-1 loss to the Houston Astros in Houston. Control doesn’t seem to be an issue right now with Pomeranz, who has only walked one batter so far this year versus 11 K’s. He had a strong spring, striking out 29.8% of the batters he faced. In spring, he was featuring his changeup, a pitch that he only threw 1% of the time last year. He’s thrown both his changeup and curveball more in the early part of this season, and judging by the walks, he is throwing those pitches for strikes. Last year Pomeranz had the benefit of some luck, posting a 2.35 ERA, but earning a 3.77 fielding independent ERA (FIP). This year, those numbers have swapped, with Pomeranz posting a 3.00 ERA and 2.51 FIP. Still, some decent numbers for the converted reliever. In looking at his opponent tonight, no Angels expected to be in the lineup have more than one hit against him, although Mike Trout’s one hit was a dinger.
Hector Santaigo’s 2015 start with the Angels is going much better than 2014. In his first six weeks of 2014, Santiago gave up 26 earned runs, but only 6 of them were earned. His teammates weren’t doing him any favors last year. Santiago is coming off of a 10-2 rout of the Rangers, where he pitched 7 innings of 4-hit, one run ball. Although his first game was a loss, he only gave up 3 earned runs while pitching into the 6th. There was concern with Santiago’s velocity declining throughout the year last year, and it has continued to do so through the beginning of this year. Right now, his fastball is coming in at 89.9 MPH. His curve and changeup are coming in at 14 and 8 MPH slower, respectively, so there is still quite a bit of room for deception and poor contact. Santiago is a notorious fly ball pitcher, to go along with that tendency for poor contact by opposing batters.
MLB Betting Verdict
Looking at the success of Pomeranz against the Angels lately, it doesn’t appear that he is on the cusp of getting lit up by this lineup. Santiago also has a fine batted average against versus the A’s expected to be in the lineup Tuesday, with the sole exception of Coco Crisp. His fly ball tendencies should get assisted by the lower temperatures at game time and the high humidity. Expect plenty of warning track fly balls, if they even go that far. It appears that both of these starters are perfectly capable of getting this game to the bullpen without giving up more than 3 runs, making the MLB pick of Under 8 runs a great value Tuesday night.
The MLB Pick: Bet under 7.5 at 5Dimes