Athletics a Value Pick at +108 to Upset Mariners on Their Home Turf

Darin Zank

Tuesday, August 25, 2015 2:30 PM UTC

Tuesday, Aug. 25, 2015 2:30 PM UTC

The A's and M's continue playing out the string on this season with Game 2 of their three-game series up in Seattle Tuesday night. The Mariners are short favorites, but Oakland is playing the better ball as of late.


A's-Mariners Tuesday Odds
As of this writing the best price we could find on Seattle and lefty Mike Montgomery was the -113 offered at JustBet, while Oakland and Jesse Chavez could be found getting +108 at Pinnacle. And the total on tonight's game sat at 7.5 runs.


The Situation
Oakland grabbed Game 1 of this series Monday night 11-5, rallying from an early 5-0 deficit with a seven-run fifth inning. With the victory the A's have won four of their last six games, while Seattle has now lost four of its last five.

At 57-68 the Mariners sit eight games off the pace in the race for the second American League wild-card berth, with time running out.

At 55-71 Oakland owns the worst record in the American League.

The Mariners lead this season series seven games to four.


Tuesday's Twirlers
Montgomery (4-6, 4.16), by our tough accounting, is seven-for-15 on quality starts this season, and 0 for his last three. Last Wednesday he gave up three runs in six innings against Texas, although we don't call that “quality,” because it's a 4.50 ERA, and he walked four guys. And over his last three starts, including a bombing against Boston, he's been ripped for 12 runs through 12 1/3 innings. For the season the rookie has allowed 85 hits through 89 innings, walked 36 and struck out 64.

Seattle is 4-11 in Monty's starts, with the totals going 6-6.

In his only career start against Oakland, back on July 5 of this season, Montgomery gave up just one run and six hits through 5 2/3 innings of a 2-1 Mariners victory.

Chavez (7-12, 3.75) is 10-for-18 on quality starts, and two for his last three. Last Wednesday he held the Dodgers to two runs through eight innings, and over his last three starts he's held foes to seven runs through 21 innings. On the season Chavez has allowed 136 hits through 139 innings, walked 39 and struck out 119.

The A's are 7-11 in games Chavez has started, with the totals going 10-11.

Over the last two seasons Chavez has started five times against Seattle, allowing 16 earned runs through 30 1/3 innings; Oakland won just one of those games, with the OVERS going 3-1-1.


Tuesday's Batting Splits
Oakland ranks 20th in the Majors this season against left-handed pitching with a .247 team batting average and 19th with a .312 team on-base percentage.

On the other hand Seattle ranks dead last against right-handed pitching with a .237 team BA and 24th with a .303 team OBP.


Ballpark Totals Factor
The OVERS are 32-27 in games played at Safeco Field this season, which are averaging 8.0 runs per.


A's-M's Tuesday Free Picks

We approach games like this, with both teams playing out the string, with caution, because sure, while teams are still trying to win, that might not necessarily be their No. 1 priority.

We'll call this pitching match-up a wash, because while Chavez might own the better numbers, his track record against Seattle isn't great. Also, we rank both these bullpens among the bottom five or so in baseball at the moment, so that comparison washes out, too. But Oakland owns a short edge with the sticks, and is getting an underdog price. The value in this spot resides with the A's. Also, try as we might, we couldn't come up with a play on the total, so we'll leave that alone.


Free MLB Pick: Oakland +108

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