New York fans have been waiting more than a year for Houston to come to the Bronx, and we couldn’t pass up an opportunity for a free MLB pick when the Yankees and Astros collide to begin a 3-game series on Tuesday.
Houston Astros vs. New York Yankees
Tuesday, May 4, 2021 – 7:05 PM EDT at Yankee Stadium
It should be fun for the 10,000 or so lucky enough to get inside Yankee Stadium, and the safest bet is it will be the toughest crowd Houston has faced since punishment for the sign-stealing scandal was levied in January 2020. New York fans will really be giving it to the Astros for what they believe was stealing the 2017 AL Pennant away from their beloved pinstripes.
Of course, we know the real reason the Yankees lost that ALCS wasn’t because Houston was banging on trash cans, but due to New York hitters being unable to hit a Lance McCullers curveball, even when they saw 24 in a row.
‘Stros 2nd in AL Scoring 4.93 Runs Per Game
Tuesday’s lid-lifter finds Houston sending Zack Greinke (2-1, 3.44) to the bump opposite New York’s Domingo German (2-2, 4.05). BetOnline was among the first shops to release lines for the matchup, and the game is going off as a pick with an 8½-run total priced to the ‘over.’
Houston reaches the Big Apple sitting in the middle of the AL West and climbing thanks to winning eight of its last 11. Helping the offense rank second in the AL in scoring is the fact Astros hitters have proven to be the toughest to strike out so far. Yuli Gurriel was one of the stars in April batting .344 with 4 HR and 16 RBI. Just as they were in the 2017 World Series campaign, the Astros have been a better team on the road than at home.
Greinke has also been better away from home than on the road. He was roughed up a bit last week at home by Seattle, the outing leaving Greinke with a 6.89 ERA in his three starts at Minute Maid Park. He’s been aces on the road, however, Houston winning all three of his assignments while Greinke sports a 0.89 ERA. This will be Greinke’s first look at the Yankees since 2019 when he faced them four times, two during the regular season while with Arizona and two in the ALCS for the Astros. Greinke worked a combined 23 innings and allowed seven runs in those appearances (2.73).
Yanks Lead AL with 3.02 ERA
New York closed April and started May strong, winning five of its last six and just completing a sweep of Detroit over the weekend. The Yankees outscored the Tigers 18-4 in the three games, blanking them twice to lower their Al-best ERA to 3.02. Aaron Judge had five hits in the series, two of them leaving the yard, and Giancarlo Stanton enters this series with a 9-game hit streak, batting .436 (17-39) in that span.
German has won his last two starts, both coming on the road at Cleveland and Baltimore. He went six and allowed two earned runs while striking out six Indians, then tossed seven shutout frames last week against the Orioles to help New York to a 7-0 win as -145 chalk at top sportsbooks. Tuesday will be his first start at Yankee Stadium in a month. He hasn’t faced the Astros in nearly three years, the May 2018 assignment coming at Yankee Stadium and ending up in the 28-year-old Dominican’s loss column (5 IP, 2 ER). It’s a small sample size, but Gurriel has had success against German with four hits in six at bats, including one long ball.
Rivalry Trends, Bronx Weather & A Free Pick
Houston and New York last met in the 2019 ALCS, the Astros winning that one in six to advance to the World Series. While Houston owns a 9-5 advantage against the Yankees in playoff games, it’s New York with a 32-23 advantage in their regular season meetings. The last baker’s dozen to be played at Yankee Stadium have run 7-5-1 O/U/P on the MLB odds.
There’s rain in the early-morning NYC forecast on Tuesday, with the weatherman calling for temps in the mid-60s and cloudy skies at first pitch. Rain chances increase around 9 p.m. on Tuesday, and there’s a 5-10 mph SE breeze in the mix (right to left).
New York appears to be putting it together after a slow start to the season, and though it’s not a capacity crowd, it will be a loud and unrelenting group getting into Houston’s ears. I’ll play the home team on the moneyline, and might even be tempted to throw a few shekels on a run line wager once those numbers come out.
*The pick reflects the line at the moment the writer made the play, the odds at the beginning of this article show the live line movement. Since the lines might vary, don’t forget to refer back to our live odds.