Astros vs Yankees: MLB Odds Analysis & Free Pick, May 13th

Jay Pryce

Friday, May 12, 2017 7:43 PM UTC

Friday, May. 12, 2017 7:43 PM UTC

The two hottest teams in the American League clash in the third of an exciting four-game series in the Bronx when the Astros and Yankees meet Saturday afternoon.

Houston Astros (24-11)

Prior to the series, Fangraphs listed the Astros (7.5 percent) and Pinstripers (11.5 percent) as the two top AL teams to win the 2017 World Series. New York’s +55 and Houston’s +41 run differentials lead the league before Friday.

The Astros took the opener 3-2 behind ace Dallas Keuchel. Mike Fiers gets the call on Saturday. The right-hander is 1-1 with a 5.64 ERA in six starts. Home runs have been an issue. Fiers has allowed a whopping 14 long balls in 30.1 frames. He’s only put in one quality start all year, a 5-1 loss to the Royals in his season debut. Still, Houston is 4-2 in Fiers’ outings, crossing the plate 5.5 times per game.

Houston, in fact, is 6-1 in Fiers’ last seven road starts. Overall, the team is 11-11 in this spot, returning a loss of five percent to bettors. Profit comes playing the over, which has gone 14-7-1. The average combined score is 10.1 runs, soaring well above the 8.3 total.

Fiers was shelled in his lone career start against the Yankees in April 2016. The eight-year vet allowed five earned runs on nine hits through five frames. Fiers allowed two homers. New York’s current roster owns a .316 batting average and .887 OPS lifetime versus the right-hander.

Houston is 10-5 away from home in 2017. Three of losses occurred in four games when going off the underdog.

 New York Yankees (21-11)

New York is 12-4 at Yankee Stadium. Through Thursday, only the Orioles (13-3) own a better home record in MLB. These victories aren’t 1-run squeakers either. The Yankees; run differential is 2.31, wining by more than one run in nine games. Backing New York on the run line has netted a 35 percent profit at +120 MLB odds.

Luis Severino gets the pill from skipper Joe Girardi. The flamethrower is 2-2 with a 3.40 ERA in six starts. For what it’s worth, he’s accounted for half of the Yankees’ home losses (1-2 in three starts). Severino has experienced a bit of tough-luck. The right-hander owns a healthy 45-to-7 K:BB ratio and has allowed just 29 hits in 39.3 innings.

Will Severino continue to evolve? Yankee fans still lack confidence. The facts speak for themselves; the team is 11-17 lifetime behind Severino since coming up in the summer of 2015. He and the staff allow 4.61 runs per contest. Versus opponents averaging better than 4.0 runs per game, the team record slips to 5-10.

The Yankees bats are crushing. The team leads the AL with 5.69 runs per game and it tops MLB with 1.62 home runs a night; bad news for the long-ball gifting Fiers.

 Final Analysis

This bullpen will likely determine the outcomes of this game. Each team’s clean-up crews are dynamite. The Astros’ clean-up crew owns a 3.35 ERA and the Yankees a 3.56, second and fourth respectively in the bigs. As a result, it’s best to avoid the game total, despite starters likely to get chased early. The best value will be on the Astros. Houston ML is my MLB pick.


Free MLB Pick: Astros +143Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

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