Astros vs. White Sox ALDS Game 4 Free Picks and Odds Breakdown

Still in control of their ALDS against the Chicago White Sox, the Houston Astros look to punch their ticket to a fifth consecutive ALCS with a matinée win on Monday’s baseball betting card.

Houston Astros vs. Chicago White Sox

Sunday, October 10, 2021 - 08:07 PM EDT at Guaranteed Rate Field

Houston took charge in this American League Division Series by winning the first two games at home last week in decisive fashion. The Astros even jumped out to a 5-1 advantage on Sunday in Game 3 to make a sweep look very likely. Chicago came back, however, for a just as decisive 12-6 final to stay alive. The White Sox were modest favorites at the best online betting sites, and it left the two sides a level 2-2 in games played in 2021 on the South Side where totals are 3-1 O/U in those matchups.

Starting pitcher information was released too late for most shops to post overnights, but we should see Chicago small chalk around -120 with 8½ for the total once things start rolling Monday morning. Houston is turning to Jose Urquidy (8-3, 3.62) to finish the series off while the White Sox go with Carlos Rodon (13-5, 2.37).

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Where Did All the Whiffs Come From?

Most fans will look at Sunday’s boxscore and conclude Houston’s bullpen was most culpable in the loss. They’d be partly correct, but the stat that stands out most to me is on the offensive side where Astros hitters struck out 16 times, three Ks each for Yordan Alvarez and Martin Maldonado. Houston was second in the AL in fewest strikeouts, averaging about 7½ per contest.

A should injury shelved Urquidy for July and August, and the 26-year-old spent September slowly building his pitch count up for manager Dusty Baker and pitching coach Brent Strom. Urquidy got in 91 and 84 tosses, respectively, in his final two starts of the year the last of which was the regular season finale eight days ago. Houston won that contest as -160 chalk on the MLB betting odds, and came out on top in five of Urquidy’s final six assignments.

Urquidy faced the White Sox in June shortly before going on the injured list, and enjoyed an excellent outing with seven innings of 2-run baseball in a 10-2 triumph. This will be his fifth postseason start, and the Astros are 2-2 while Urquidy pitched to a 2.89 ERA in the other four.

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Can Anderson Continue Red-Hot Postseason?

Chicago got a lot of production from the bottom of its batting order in Game 3, Leury Garciacontributing a couple of hits and driving in four runs from the 8-hole in the lineup. Still, it’s the tip-top of the lineup that is really driving the White Sox as Tim Anderson has enjoyed back-to-back 3-hit games and his batting .467 in the ALDS.

We’re really not sure what to expect from Rodon on Monday after the southpaw dealt with a sore arm during the final month of the regular season. It has been nearly two weeks since he was last on the mound, Rodon working five scoreless innings of a 6-1 win over the Cincinnati Reds with Chicago priced .

Rodon hurled seven scoreless in July to get the dubya in a 4-0 final over the Astros in Chicago. He also tossed seven innings of 1-run baseball about a month earlier in Houston, a no-decision for him in an eventual 2-1 Astros win. Monday marks Rodon’s first career playoff start, his only postseason experience in the form of a short-lived relief outing against Oakland last October.

Mother Nature Could Mess Things Up

Vic Carapazza is next in line among the umpires to have the dish, the seventh time the New York native has worked a postseason set and fifth time to call balls and strikes in October. Carapazza’s 31 plate assignments in the regular season had a decidedly ‘under’ lean at 11-19-1 O/U/P, and he was a friend to the home sides at 20-11, 15-6 when favored. The four playoff games Carapazza was behind the mask split the totals.

For the first time this postseason, the weather could interfere with plans as there’s about a 50% chance of rain when Monday’s match is scheduled to begin, and the likelihood of precipitation only increases the rest of the afternoon. In addition to the wet stuff, there’s a 12-15 mph southerly breeze (in from right) in the forecast. Assuming they can get the game in, my free MLB pick is based solely on my thoughts when this series got underway, and that is it goes the full five games.

MLB Pick: (visit our Sportsbook Review)

*The pick reflects the line at the moment the writer made the play, the odds at the beginning of this article show the live line movement. Since the lines might vary, don’t forget to refer back to our live odds.