Astros vs. Royals to Go 'Over' in Battle of Lethal Offenses

Charles Stark

Sunday, July 26, 2015 12:36 AM GMT

Sunday, Jul. 26, 2015 12:36 AM GMT

I'm going to back over the total when the Houston Astros visit the Kansas City Royals. I like for both of these teams to have a lot of quality at-bats today with a final of around 6-3.

This a very interesting pitching matchup with the odds on favorite to win the AL Cy Young versus a Royals pitcher with a lot of upside, though he has not shown it so far this year. We have the Astros, a solid overall hitting team and the Royals, an extremely good home team. 

 

Odds
For this game, MLB odds makers came out with the total at 7 but the line has now gone up to 7.5 at most sportsbooks. The good part about that is that you can get some good value on over the total in this spot, with most places having that line at a little bit of plus money. At Pinnacle you can get the over 7.5 at +112. For me that is good value on a game that should see more offense than anticipated.

 

Pitchers
For the Astros, odds on favorite to win the AL Cy Young and All-Star starter Dallas Keuchel gets the start. He comes in with a 2.12 ERA and 0.97 WHIP. He has had an amazing season and he is coming off a tremendous start against the Rangers, where he allowed zero earned runs in seven innings. Still, his road numbers are a little bit more pedestrian with a 3.34 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP. In his last two road starts he was far from perfect as well, allowing three earned runs in both and 16 hits overall in 13 innings. He has been one of the top pitchers in the major leagues this season but don't look for him to shut down the Royals today.

Kansas City sends Yordano Ventura to the mound. He is in the midst of a tough season, coming in with a 5.19 ERA and 1.35 WHIP, and he simply has not pitched as well as the Royals had expected. Although he is trying to bounce back from a bad start against the Pirates, his numbers don't lie, and at home they don't get better with a 5.86 ERA and 1.36 WHIP. The Astros should be able to push more than a few runs across the plate against him.

 

At the Plate
Houston ranks fourth in the league in runs scored per game, and that average actually goes up just a little bit on the road. The Royals rank eighth in the league in runs scored per game, and like most MLB teams this average goes up at home. In batting average we see the same statistic angle with Kansas City ranking as one of the best for average hitting teams at home, and Houston averaging a bit more on the road than they do in Houston. In OPS these teams are right next to each other, with Houston ranked seventh and Kansas City ranked eighth. The Royals again average a higher OPS at home, but unlike their runs per game, Houston averages a little less on the road. Overall what we have today are some good home and away angles and two good hitting teams that should be able to plate enough runs off the starters to get this over this total.

MLB Pick: 'Over' 7.5 (-122) at 5Dimes

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