Astros vs. Red Sox MLB Picks and Odds Analysis

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Astros vs. Red Sox MLB Picks and Odds Analysis
Garrett Stubbs #11 of the Houston Astros celebrates after a win over the Boston Red Sox. Adam Glanzman/Getty Images/AFP

Red Sox fans have been given it to the Astros this week, all while embracing their manager who was part of the 2017 sign-stealing scandal. Imagine how upset they’ll be if Houston completes a sweep of Boston on Thursday’s sports betting card.

Houston Astros vs. Boston Red Sox

Thursday, June 10, 2021 – 07:10 PM EDT at Fenway Park

Amidst a steady chorus of boos, Houston took the first two games of the set with relative ease, winning Tuesday’s opener 7-1 before an 8-3 triumph in last night’s matchup. The Astros couldn’t complete a four-game sweep of the Red Sox a week ago in Houston, losing the finale of that series. The two games in Boston have split 10-run totals, while three of the four at Minute Maid came up short.

Tonight’s total is down one to nine in a starting pitching matchup between Zack Greinke (6-2, 3.38) and Eduardo Rodriguez (5-4, 5.59). Moneylines for the contest are tight, with Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review) carrying the Astros as small -110 road chalk.

Astros Hitters Lead MLB Picks

Despite the two impressive wins to begin this series, Houston has been unable to gain any ground on Oakland in the AL West race. The Astros remain a game behind the front-running A’s, who have won six of their last seven and will open a long series at home on Thursday against the Kansas City Royals.

On one hand, it’s always nice to see a pitcher go the distance with a complete game, as Greinke did in his last start. On the other hand, we always wonder if that might lead to a shorter outing his next time out. At least Greinke didn’t come away with a high pitch total last Friday against the Blue Jays, the veteran using 102 to win in Buffalo as a +125 underdog on the MLB betting odds. It was Houston’s fifth win in his last six starts.

Starting pitcher Zack Greinke #21 of the Houston Astros during the first inning. Kevin Hoffman/Getty Images/AFP

Greinke missed the Red Sox when they were in Houston last week, and will be facing them for the first time since joining the Astros in 2019. In fact, it will be the first time he has gone up against them since an interleague start in 2016 while with Arizona. That’s an outing Greinke would rather forget, arguably the worst of his career when he didn’t even make it through the second inning at Fenway Park having surrendered nine runs and three homers.

‘Under’ Has Cashed Last Four Rodriguez Home Starts

Boston has struggled at home, standing a pedestrian 17-15 at Fenway Park and an impressive 20-10 on the road. The good news is the Red Sox didn’t lose any ground to Tampa Bay in the AL East with Wednesday’s setback as the Rays also lost. Even better news is they should get Alex Verdugo back Thursday after he missed the first two games with back trouble.

Pitcher Eduardo Rodriguez #57 of the Boston Red Sox delivers a pitch. Rich Schultz/Getty Images/AFP

Rough appearances continue to pile up on Rodriguez’s scorecard, though he was able to snap a fourth-game losing streak in his last start. Closing as a +130 underdog this past Saturday at Yankee Stadium, the southpaw was pulled in the sixth with the score tied 3-3, Boston scoring late for a 7-3 final as a +130 underdog at top online betting sites. The 28-year-old Venezuelan was coming off a disastrous month of May when he posted a 7.28 ERA in six assignments.

Rodriguez was knocked around in Houston last week, giving up six runs before being relieved in the fifth inning. He is 1-3 with a 7.47 ERA in five career starts and two relief appearances against the Astros, both calls from the bullpen taking place during the 2018 playoffs. Houston’s Big three – Alex Bregman, Jose Altuve and Carlos Correa, have combined for a .464 average (13-28) with three HR against Rodriguez.

Beantown Forecast & A Free Pick

Working the dish in the series finale for Brian Gorman’s umpire crew will be Sean Barber. Now in his eighth MLB season, Barber has trended in two distinct directions with nine of his 12 plate assignments ending in a win for the visitors and ‘over’ bettors going back to the pay window eight times. Each of his last two games at the Boston dish have hopped the totals.

Alex Bregman #2 of the Houston Astros is tagged out at some plate by Christian Vazquez #7 of the Boston Red Sox. Adam Glanzman/Getty Images/AFP

Partly cloudy skies during the day should give way to a mostly clear evening for the Beantown boobirds who make their way into Fenway Park. The weatherman is calling for a game-time reading of 67° on the thermometer with a 10 mph ESE breeze (right to left).

We certainly don’t expect Greinke to hurl another complete game, but the good news is Houston’s relief corps is well-rested. Go ahead and boo, Sox Nation, and give the Astros some extra fire inside. Houston is my free MLB pick to finish off the broom job in Boston.

Free MLB Pick: Astros -108 at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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*The pick reflects the line at the moment the writer made the play, the odds at the beginning of this article show the live line movement. Since the lines might vary, don’t forget to refer back to our live odds.