Our MLB handicapper, Mark Lathrop, finishes the 2017 season in style by planning a Game 7 party and a pick on... booze and cigars. Read on as he gives his breakdown of the value of wagering on the final game of the season.
The 2017 World Series goes to a Game 7 on the first day of November. Fitting really, as the best teams for each respective league have given their all up to this point. As I watch Chris Taylor give the postgame interview for Game 6 I am reminded of how pathetic he was in a Mariners uniform, and how amazing he has been for the Dodgers this postseason. Who would have thought that possible? This game will humble you, even if you are just a fan of a single team or betting on the entire card every night.
For this game, I have a different plan than the other 441 games I have picked this season, and that is to sit on the sidelines and just enjoy the natural tension. It doesn’t need an additional monetary value assigned to a side to be entertaining or valuable like a game in the dog days of summer in July. And while watching this game I know that I won’t have to write up something for the Thursday MLB card, so it is a great excuse to celebrate if you know what I mean. And I mean drinking. I will celebrate by drinking alcohol in my man cave. Alcohol I have made myself.
It’s been a long slog to get to my +10.16 units this season after picking up +12.00 units last season. By month it went: April -5.75, May +12.51, June -8.08, July +5.79, August +1.94, September +2.43, and October +1.32 units. The positive months of August and September both featured 6-game losing streaks each to end each month! I think what is important is to keep your mind open to learning, to listen to the ideas of other handicappers (especially my SBR brethren), and not to think you know everything there is to know. Oh, and keep your wagers at an even pace – no big bets to get caught in the losing streak at the end of your winning month.
With the betting odds now out, the Dodgers now find themselves as -140 favorites to win Game 7 and the World Series, which puts the Astros as an underdog once again. I happen to think that the Astros perform better when the odds are against them, so my lean would be to back them in this coin flip game at plus odds. The total of 7.5 runs is also a crapshoot as this series has shown us time and time again. The long ball was prevalent in Game 6, yet they were all solo shots which kept the game from going Over on Wednesday. Two righties will get the ball to start the game in Lance McCullers and Yu Darvish, which also has me leaning over in this game as well. However, all pitchers will be available for both squads so handicapping the starting pitchers is a fool’s errand.
Crack open a cold one and enjoy the game for what it is. Opportunities for the convergence of two teams at the top of their game in a winner-take-all doesn't come around often. And after all, they’ve split 6 games played in a row now so picking a side with confidence would be a lie. If pressed I have a lean towards the Over and Houston, but otherwise, I will be enjoying Game 7 without a MLB picks ticket in hand.
2017 MLB Record, 227-202-12, +10.16 units