Astros vs. Mariners MLB Picks: Pitching Showdown in Seattle Presents Tons of Value

Kenny Ducey

Last Updated: July 22, 2022 9:55 AM EDT • 3 min 5 sec read. Twitter link Google News Link

LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA - JULY 19: Ty France #23 and Julio Rodriguez #44 of the Seattle Mariners smile in the dugout before the 92nd MLB All-Star Game presented by Mastercard at Dodger Stadium on July 19, 2022 in Los Angeles, California. Ronald Martinez/Getty Images/AFP (Photo by RONALD MARTINEZ / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / Getty Images via AFP)

The hottest team in baseball will put their run to the test at home against the Houston Astros. Can the Seattle Mariners continue their winnings ways? Check out our Astros-Mariners picks.

Seattle is riding a 14-game winning streak out of the All-Star break and now hosts the juggernaut Astros.

The Mariners are sending Marco Gonzales to the hill to square off against Jose Urquidy in a pitching matchup that could provide some betting value.

Here are my MLB picks and predictions for Friday’s game between the Astros and Mariners (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook, DraftKings Sportsbook, and Caesars Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Astros vs. Mariners Game Info

Date: Friday, July 22, 10:10 p.m. ETTV: MLB.tvLocation: T-Mobile Park, Seattle, WAWeather: Indoors

Astros vs. Mariners Odds

Astros vs. Mariners Odds Analysis

The Astros opened as -117 favorites, and that line has moved a decent bit. Houston is now as heavy as -126, with -125 being offered essentially across the board.

DraftKings is reporting that 65% of all tickets have come in on Houston, but just 56% of the handle is on the road side. The Mariners, as you’d figure, are commanding more of the handle than bets.

The total has been pretty evenly split with a slightly higher percentage of handle than tickets on Under 8.

Astros vs. Mariners Projected Pitchers

Jose Urquidy (8-4, 4.09 ERA, 1.25 WHIP) vs. Marco Gonzales (5-9, 3.50 ERA, 1.37 WHIP)

Urquidy hasn’t had the best season, though things have picked up of late. He’s made a quality start in each of his last six, most recently pitching twice against the A’s and lasting 14 1/3 total innings with only six runs charged to his name.

Gonzales is having a slightly better season and was in a great groove until his last start before the break turned to disaster. The lefty allowed five runs on 11 hits against the Rangers.

Astros vs. Mariners Picks

Moneyline: Mariners (+108 via FanDuel) ?????Over/Under: Over 8.5 (+100 via DraftKings) ?????Prop bet: Jose Urquidy Under 17.5 outs (-104 via Caesars) ????

Check out the latest comprehensive and most trusted Sportsbook Reviews by SBR.

Astros vs. Mariners ML Pick

Mariners (+108)

This one’s rather easy for me.

For starters, let’s look at the three times Urquidy has met the Mariners this season. He allowed six runs on eight hits over four innings in April, then six runs on 12 hits and two walks over 4 2/3 innings in May, and five runs on seven hits and four walks over 4 1/3 in June. In total, he’s yielded four homers in these three starts.

It’s just the tip of the iceberg for the righty. His .395 xwOBA on contact is a disaster and his .474 xSLG ranks in the bottom 9% of the league. He’s just not pitching to contact well at all, and his strikeouts are down almost 3% from last season.

Gonzales, meanwhile, has pitched to an ERA just above two runs in three starts against Houston. Though there are more factors, it’s important to note that Urquidy’s peripherals are worse than Gonzales’, and the head-to-head is far different.

Houston’s bullpen is also going to be feeling the effects of playing a double-header on Thursday, which could throw this one over the edge.

Astros vs. Mariners O/U Pick

Over 8.5 (+100)

Both of these offenses are in the top seven of the league when it comes to run production over the last 30 days. Both have hit the cover off the ball, and both have a walk rate of at least 9.4%.

There should be plenty of baserunners and plenty of power, judging by what we’ve seen out of these batting orders, and I also think we should note that Gonzales hasn’t exactly been Cy Young out there.

The soft-tossing lefty may be in a somewhat better spot than Urquidy based on the way he’s limited hard-hit balls and homers, but with a 4.74 xERA and a .273 xBA, it’s hard to say one of the best offenses in baseball won’t be able to get runners on and convert them into runs. I think we’ll see both teams light it up.

Astros vs. Mariners Prop Bet

Urquidy Under 17.5 Outs (-104)

Urquidy needs to complete six innings for the Over to cash. While that's happened in six straight for the righty, he's failed to do so thus far against the Mariners.

I simply don't have enough faith in Urquidy making it through the order cleanly enough to stick around that long, despite the fact that the Astros’ bullpen is going to enter this one fatigued. Seattle ranks fifth-best in chase rate, and despite the fact that Urquidy has kept his walks under control this year, he’s issued seven free passes in his three starts against Seattle. Everything points to this being a laborious outing for the right-hander.

Where to Bet on Astros vs. Mariners Bets

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

FanDuel Sportsbook Caesars Sportsbook DraftKings Sportsbook PointsBet BetMGM

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Astros-Mariners picks from 7/22/2022 at 2:24 p.m. ET.

Written By:
Kenny Ducey

Kenny is a contributor for DraftKings and a former member of the Baseball Writers' Association of America. He's covered Tennis, Football, Basketball, and Baseball dating back to his time at Sports Illustrated. He's based out of New York, where sports have taken a turn for the worst, yet somehow his support for the Jets and Knicks has not wavered in the slightest.