Astros Huge Pitching Advantage vs. Rangers Makes Houston Your Best MLB Pick

David Lawrence

Wednesday, September 16, 2015 1:33 PM GMT

Wednesday, Sep. 16, 2015 1:33 PM GMT

The Astros & Rangers are in a fight to the finish in the AL West. As in MLB betting the value of each win or loss cannot be overstated. We share our winning picks here. 

Momentum
This is a one-way street at the moment, pending the outcome of Tuesday night’s game between the two teams in the second game of this series. On Monday night, Texas won the first game, 5-3, on a two-run homer by Prince Fielder in the bottom of the eighth. The Rangers moved within half a game of the Astros, a most improbable reality when seen from a vantage point two or three weeks in the past. The Rangers have been chipping away at Houston’s lead. The process continued over the weekend, when the Rangers won their series with the Oakland Athletics and the Astros lost their series with the Los Angeles Angels. Houston did avoid a sweep on Sunday with a five-run, none-on, two-out rally in the top of the ninth, but by losing Monday, the Astros failed to parlay that escape into a genuine surge. Texas is the team playing better baseball, and it’s something Houston has to try to find a way to halt on the road in Arlington.

 

Pitching Matchup
With Dallas Keuchel on the mound, Houston might have the American League Cy Young Award winner in this game. Keuchel has been especially great at home this season, with a 1.49 ERA, but it’s not as though he’s been poor on the road. A 3.13 ERA is nothing to sneeze at away from home. His overall ERA is 2.22, and his WHIP is exactly 1.00. Those are phenomenal numbers, likely to give him his first Cy Young. Keuchel is a very efficient pitcher who keeps the ball down and gets hitters off balance. He doesn’t allow them to feel comfortable and is able to apply pressure on a consistent basis.

Martin Perez is the starter for the Rangers. He has a 5.43 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP. It’s remarkable that the Rangers are in a division race with a regular rotation pitcher who is this bad. It serves as a reminder that the Rangers are in a race despite being without Yu Darvish for the whole season. Perez has given up at least three runs in each of his last six starts and nine of his last 10. He just can’t overpower hitters and doesn’t have a big weapon as a putaway pitch. This always leaves him limited against decent hitters.

 

What’s The Pick?
The pitching matchup is a total mismatch and we can exploit that with our MLB picks today. The Astros have their best, and the Rangers have their worst. That has to lead to a Houston win.

MLB Pick: Houston -147 at Heritage

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