Astros vs. Guardians MLB Picks: Verlander Set To Dominate Cleveland

The Houston Astros and Cleveland Guardians open a four-game series at Progressive Field on Thursday. Houston looks to bounce back after losing a four-game series to the Boston Red Sox, while the Guardians look to stay hot after winning their series at home against the Arizona Diamondbacks. Check out our Astros-Guardians picks.

The Astros and Guardians meet for the second time this season, this time in Cleveland after the Astros took the first three-game series at home in May.

The Astros are 19-9 in their last 28 games on the road and look to build on that hot streak. It certainly helps that they have their ace, Justin Verlander, on the mound, who looks to keep his strong season going against a rather middle-of-the-pack Cleveland offense.

Zach Plesac gets the start for the Guardians. Plesac’s 0-5 in his last seven starts, and though the Astros’ offense has been in a bit of a slump lately, a 6-1 win on Wednesday bodes well for Houston.

Here are my MLB picks and predictions for Thursday night’s game between the Astros and Guardians (odds via PointsBet, BetMGM, and DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5 scale).

Astros vs. Guardians Game Info

Date/Time: Thursday, Aug. 4, 7:10 p.m. ETLocation: Progressive Field, Cleveland, OhioWeather: 80 degrees, 80% chance of precipitation, wind 8 mph 

Astros vs. Guardians Odds Analysis

The Astros are the Moneyline favorites in this game, ranging from -180 at DraftKings to -200 at BetMGM.

The consensus total across the majority of sportsbooks is 8.

Astros vs. Guardians Projected Pitchers 

Justin Verlander (14-3, 1.81 ERA, 0.87 WHIP) vs. Zach Plesac (2-9, 4.33 ERA, 1.29 WHIP)

Verlander has returned to vintage form this season and is having a particularly impressive stretch. In his last seven starts, he’s recorded a 1.59 ERA and 0.97 WHIP with 44 strikeouts over 45 1/3 innings pitched. He’s been as solid as ever on the road, with a 1.72 ERA and .152 opponent batting average in 68 innings.

Verlander leads all of MLB in wins and is in the 95th percentile in walk percentage.

It’s been a different story for Plesac, who’s been battling quite a bit in his last seven starts. He’s gone 0-5 with a 4.17 ERA and 1.31 WHIP, allowing 35 hits, 17 earned runs, and issuing 13 walks with 35 strikeouts over 36 2/3 innings pitched. 

On top of the rough patch, Plesac had a rough go against this Astros lineup the last time he saw them on May 24 in Houston. In just four innings, he allowed nine hits and one walk for seven earned runs with just five strikeouts.

Plesac has his work cut out for him, and it’s going to be even tougher with Verlander on the other end. 

Astros vs. Guardians Picks

Moneyline: Astros (-180 via DraftKings) ????Over/Under: Under 8 (-105 via BetMGM) ???Prop bet: Justin Verlander Over 8 strikeouts (+240 via PointsBet) ????

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Astros vs. Guardians ML Pick

Astros (-180)

As mentioned, this Astros lineup has been off its game as of late, but we saw them move in the right direction in their last game on Wednesday vs. the Boston Red Sox with six runs, led by a home run from newly acquired first baseman Trey Mancini.

More importantly, however, Houston has Verlander on the hill. Regardless of Cleveland’s middle-of-the-pack offense, Verlander’s not a guy to be betting against this season; he leads the majors in wins for a reason. 

As the Astros' offense moves in the right direction, Verlander gives them a cushion.  

Astros vs. Guardians O/U Pick

Under 8 (-105)

Verlander has not faced Cleveland since 2019, and he threw seven shutout innings on just a pair of hits and no walks to 13 strikeouts in that start. Though this Guardians lineup looks much different than it did in 2019, Verlander’s somehow having an even better season than that campaign. 

Even with the success this Astros lineup had against Plesac in his last start against them, Houston still averages just 4.43 runs per game. Combine that with the fact Verlander has been locked in all season long, and I’m taking the Under in this one.

Astros vs. Guardians Prop Pick

Verlander Over 8 Strikeouts (+240)

If you haven’t figured it out by now, Verlander’s having a really, really, really good season. He’s averaged eight strikeouts per game over his last three, pitching at least six innings in each.

Where to Bet on Astros vs. Guardians Bets

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

FanDuel SportsbookCaesars SportsbookDraftKings SportsbookPointsBetBetMGM

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Astros-Guardians picks from 8/4/2022 at 12:22 p.m. ET.