Assuming Weaver Starts for Angels, Pick Orioles & Bet 'Over'

Darin Zank

Sunday, August 9, 2015 11:50 AM GMT

Wild-card contenders hook up for a rubber match as the Orioles and Angels play a series finale out at the Big A Sunday afternoon. Jered Weaver is expected to come off the DL and start for the Halos, but this handicapper has no problem fading the former ace.

Orioles-Angels Sunday Odds
As of this writing, early Sunday morning, the MLB betting market was waiting to line today's game, as there will still a bit of uncertainty as to who would pitch for Anaheim today. Most reports we read said Jered Weaver would come off the DL to start today, but at least one outlet listed Matt Shoemaker as today's starter. For this piece, we're previewing Weaver.

 

The Situation
These teams have split the first two games of this series, Anaheim winning Friday 8-4, Baltimore taking Saturday's game 5-0. So the Orioles are 10-4 over their last 14 games, while the Angels are 4-11 over their last 15 contests.

At 58-51 Anaheim trails first-place Houston by a game and a half in the AL West, but still owns the second American League wild-card spot, for the moment.

At 56-53 Baltimore trails first-place New York by five games in the AL East, but sits just two games behind the Angels in the battle for that second AL wild-card spot.

Anaheim leads this season series three games to two, with the totals leaning toward the UNDERS by a 4-1 margin.

 

Sunday's Mound Match-Up
Weaver (4-8, 4.75) will supposedly come off the DL, where he's been recovering from a sore hip, to make his first start in six weeks today. On the season, by our strict standards, Weaver is just six-for-15 on quality starts, and 0 for his last five. In his most recent start, back on June 20, Weaver gave up four runs in 5 2/3 innings against Oakland, and over his last five starts he gave up 22 earned runs through 32 1/3 innings. On the whole Weaver has allowed 104 hits, including 16 homers, through 97 innings, walked just 16, which is great, but struck out only 49, which is way down for him, over that number of innings.

Anaheim is 6-9 in Weaver's starts, with the totals going 6-8.

Over the last season-plus Weaver has started three times against Baltimore, allowing nine runs through 20 1/3 innings; the Angels won two of those games, and two of those games played UNDER.

Gonzalez (9-8, 4.32) is just six-for-20 on quality starts, and 0 for his last two. Tuesday he gave up three runs in 5 1/3 innings against Oakland, and just before that he gave up five runs in just 3 1/3 innings against Detroit. For the season Gonzalez has allowed 113 hits, including 18 dingers, through 115 innings, walked 36 and struck out 86.

The Orioles are 11-9 in games Gonzalez has started, with the totals splitting 10-10.

Over four career starts against Anaheim, the most recent coming back in July of last season, Gonzalez has held the Halos to seven runs through 28 2/3 innings; Baltimore won three of those games, while all four of those games played UNDER.

 

Sunday's Batting Splits
The Orioles rank 15th in the Majors this season against right-handed pitching with a .253 team batting average, and 19th with a .311 team on-base percentage.

Anaheim ranks 21st against righties with a .248 team average and 22nd with a .309 team OBP.

 

Ballpark Totals Factor
Games played at the Big A this season are 33-23 on the UNDERS, averaging 7.3 runs per, fourth-fewest among all ML ballparks.

 

O's-Angels Sunday Free Picks
Most factors we considered when handicapping this baseball game washed out to about equal, but we give the Os an edge in the bullpen. So we like Baltimore on the side moneyline MLB pick today. Also, we could easily see this game getting to 5-4, so we're going with the OVER.

MLB Picks: Orioles and OVER