As Vig Reaches -240 Levels, Smart Bettors Play Dodgers Run Line Over Padres

Steven Suarez

Friday, June 12, 2015 1:36 PM UTC

Friday, Jun. 12, 2015 1:36 PM UTC

Happy Clayton Kershaw day! The Dodgers are humungous MLB betting favorites for tonight's game despite being out on the road, and it's hard to picture them not winning easily.

Odds Overview
Clayton Kershaw and the Dodgers are the biggest favorites on the MLB odds board and it's not even close. They're in the -235 to -240 range to secure a victory, which is the highest number by a wide margin. That just goes to show you how dominant Kershaw can be and how confident oddsmakers are in a win for LA.

If you want to take a chance on the Padres, you can find some crazy numbers out there at the top sportsbooks like 5Dimes. The Padres are hovering around the +200 mark to get the win, with the total at just six runs for tonight. Of course, most of those six runs are expected to come from the Dodgers against Odrisamer Despaigne.

Learn How to Use the Log5 Method to Predict MLB Statistics

San Diego Padres (Despaigne)
The Padres just finished up a road trip that saw them win two of three in Cincinnati before splitting a four-game set in Atlanta. They're now at an even 31-31 for the season, which is good for third place in the NL West, a big improvement from where we've seen this team compete in recent years.

San Diego now returns home, but faces another difficult test against the surging Dodgers. It's going to be incredibly tough here in the series opener too considering they have to face Kershaw, not to mention the fact Despaigne hasn't been all that reliable this season.

Despaigne checks in at 3-4 with a 4.72 ERA and 1.28 WHIP on the year, though those numbers are inflated from two truly terrible outings. He's actually showcased some quality stuff at times, but we're not too confident about his chances against LA in this spot.


Los Angeles Dodgers (Kershaw)
Last week was pretty shaky for the Dodgers, but they've turned things around and will be riding a three-game winning streak ahead of tonight's game in San Diego after they swept Arizona at home.

They'll be trotting out their ace this evening too, so a fourth consecutive victory seems almost a lock; just look over those MLB odds and see for yourself. Kershaw is 5-3 with a 3.36 ERA and 1.06 WHIP on the season, and while those are perfectly solid numbers, we're used to seeing the southpaw throw up ridiculous stats.

But just look closely and you'll see this is the same guy we've gotten accustomed to seeing dominate start in and start out. Kershaw owns an elite 11.32 K/9 rate and his SIERA is all the way down at 2.36, suggesting that we'll be seeing his ERA drop quite a bit here going forward. 


MLB Pick
We're not going to fade Kershaw, no matter how steep the price may be.

The southpaw has been every bit as dominant as he was last season, despite his overall numbers suggesting otherwise. Dig deeper and you'll see all of his advanced metrics and peripherals are holding up with 2014's historical campaign, and now Kershaw gets a date with a Padres team that doesn't scare anyone, especially against left-handers.

Then you throw in the fact the Dodgers, who were already one of the best offenses against right-handed pitching, just got Yasiel Puig back in the fold to boost their run production even further. They come up against the shaky and inconsistent Despaigne here and should find success at the plate.

Needless to say, we like LA to take care of business here, so in order to avoid laying some massive chalk, we're going to side with the road team on the run-line instead for our MLB pick today.

MLB Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (-125) at Bookmaker

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