Arizona Diamondbacks vs Milwaukee Brewers Picks for Sunday, May 28th

Brewers pitcher Jimmy Nelson

Sunday, May 28, 2017 12:38 PM GMT

It is the finale of a four-game series between Arizona and Milwaukee and those betting baseball cannot help but be impressed with the Diamondbacks remarkable turnaround this season.

Coming off a 69-93 campaign, the D-Backs are 31-20 and one of best choices for MLB picks at +11.4 units. Milwaukee was playing good baseball themselves until recent slump of 1-5.

Who should you be looking at for picks today, let's break all the facts down.

 

Pitching Matchup - Corbin vs. Nelson

Going into the 2014 season, Patrick Corbin (4-4, 4.40 ERA) was positioned to be the ace of the Arizona staff, when his left elbow blew out and he needed Tommy John surgery. He missed all of 2014 and showed promise in 2015 over 16 starts, but it has been a struggle since. What hurts Corbin is his inability to get inside on right-handed batters with the fastball and his slider is sliding, not tilting downward to tie-up this type of hitter and they are ranking him for a bloated .305 batting average.

Jimmy Nelson (2-3, 4.23) shows just an enough over a trio of starts year after year that you think he has finally figured it out, then like an MMA fighter with a round-house kick to the chin, Nelson is shelled and the whole process starts again. Part of the problem is Nelson himself, tinkering with too many pitches, instead of utilizing his best ones, the sinker and slider, which is how he got to the majors.

 

Both Clubs Love the Long Ball

Both the D-Backs and Brewers have quality offensive clubs and they are helped by playing in parks conducive to scoring runs. Miller Park is not quite the Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, but it is in the neighborhood and plays a part why Milwaukee scores 5.4 runs per contest at home this campaign. The short power alley's have helped the Brew Crew to be 3rd in the National League in home runs, lead by Eric Thames.

Arizona enjoys the benefits of the thinner air of the desert and is 2nd in balls over the fence in the NL. That is not to say the park has made Paul Goldschmidt (11) and Jake Lamb (14) home run bashers because they have the skill to drive one out of any yard. Nonetheless, it is noteworthy to see the Snakes only score 3.5 RPG on the road compared to 6.0 at Chase Field.

 

Betting Odds, History and Bullpen Numbers

The MLB odds have Milwaukee as a -115 favorite with the total at 9. Since 2015, these clubs have split 10 battles and the OVER is 5-4-1. The reported biggest weakness for the D-Backs coming into the season was supposed to be the bullpen, however, they are 5th in the NL in ERA and 2nd in save percentage. The Crew's pen is 4th in ERA and just ordinary in saving leads.

 

The Winner Is......

When I look at Arizona has trouble scoring on the road, Corbin has an ERA 7.87 on the road (D-Backs 0-3) and Nelson is coming to a mediocre outing, my belief is Milwaukee will get a series split before heading out to the cement jungle to play the New York Mets.

 Free MLB Pick: Milwaukee -107Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

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