Arizona Diamondbacks vs L.A. Dodgers - Value Lies in First 5 Innings

Mark Lathrop

Saturday, October 7, 2017 3:06 PM UTC

Saturday, Oct. 7, 2017 3:06 PM UTC

Our MLB handicapper, Mark Lathrop, dials in the play with the highest wagering value as the Diamondbacks face the Dodgers in Game 2 of their National League Division Series.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs L.A. Dodgers  

The Los Angeles Dodgers took the first game in this series, 9-5, and my Over 7.5 call easily cashed after the bottom of the 4th inning. The scoring didn’t end there, and even though the Diamondbacks homered 4 times in the game they were all solo shots which didn’t allow for them to catch up. Clayton Kershaw was credited with the win even though his dinger problem continued on the year, as he gave up all 4 home runs on the night over 6.1 innings pitched.

Tonight we have Robbie Ray of the Diamondbacks starting on short rest after pitching in the Wild Card game for just over 2 innings against Rich Hill of the Dodgers. This will be Ray’s sixth start of the year against the Dodgers. Not necessarily a bad thing for him as he has a 2.27 ERA with 53 K’s over 31.2 IP against the Dodgers this season. He’s picked up 3 winning decisions over those five starts, and last pitched a 14 strikeout, 7.1 IP shutout gem against the Dodgers on September 4th.

It isn’t hard to see why Ray gives the Dodgers fits. He carries a .192 BAA against right-handers on the season and a .216 BAA against lefties. There really isn’t a lineup that the Dodgers can throw together to do well against Ray. Another positive sign for the lefty is that he has gotten stronger as the season has worn on, with his average fastball velocity actually increasing a tick from April.

Rich Hill will try to win against the Diamondbacks for the first time in 3 tries, after two back-to-back losses in August and September. He doesn’t particularly fare well against the Diamondbacks and has a career 1-6 record against them with a 5.02 ERA. Although Hill has an almost identical FIP on the season as Ray at 3.72, he has a left-handed .253 BAA split that looks like it can be taken advantage of at times. He’s been very solid in the second half of this season though, with a 3.43 FIP, .194 BAA, and 0.98 WHIP over 74.2 IP.

The lines have opened with the Dodgers as -135 moneyline favorites and have shifted slightly in their favor overnight with -140 chalk now showing at BookMaker. The O/U total of 8 has been solid with just a nickel shift to the Under at -115 chalk. With the Arizona bullpen being a wild card, i.e. Fernando Rodney, I especially like looking at the first 5 inning lines with them. This is where I have found the value in this game, and will take Robbie Ray and the Diamondbacks on the F5 +.5 run line as my Game 2 MLB Pick.

Free MLB Pick: Diamondbacks +.5 1st 5 Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

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2017 MLB Record, 217-193-11, +9.54 units

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