Are you Bold Enough To Bet On The Braves? This Expert's Pick Says You Should

Jason Lake

Saturday, August 27, 2016 6:15 PM UTC

Saturday, Aug. 27, 2016 6:15 PM UTC

The MLB odds haven't been kind to the San Francisco Giants lately, but Saturday's game against the last-place Atlanta Braves may be just what the doctor ordered.

So here we are with the San Francisco Giants (70-58, –2.35 units) still mired in their slump. It shouldn't be a surprise they've fallen out of first place in the NL West, given that when we last checked in on San Fran, they had lost 16 of their previous 24 games. Since then? More of the same at 5-8. We hope you've been fading the Giants on the regular with your MLB picks.

Then again, San Francisco is in the middle of a three-game series at home against the worst team in baseball, the Atlanta Braves (47-82, –10.77 units). Maybe this isn't the most propitious time to be unloading on the other side. The Giants snuffed out Atlanta 7-0 in the opener Friday night as massive –220 favorites; Game 2 on Saturday (9:05 p.m. ET) sees former Cy Young winner Jake Peavy twirl for the Giants against Mike Foltynewicz. Peavy isn't what he used to be, but the Braves are still +150 on our MLB odds board at press time.

Hail Atlanta!
While Atlanta may be at the bottom of the sea – excuse me, standings – the Giants are almost certainly overvalued in this situation. FiveThirtyEight project the Braves to win Saturday's game 36 percent of the time, which translates to +178 on our glorious SBR Betting Odds Converter. This is why you have to manage your bankroll and your expectations; San Francisco probably won't lose this game, but in the long run, they'll lose often enough to make fading them profitable. In theory, if things stay the way they are.

Peavy (4.35 FIP) isn't the guy you want to see on the mound if you're a San Fran fan. He was demoted to the bullpen at the end of July, but Matt Cain has a bad back, so Peavy gets another shot against the Braves. However, don't blame the 2007 Triple Crown winner for that unsightly .320 BABIP, and keep in mind, Peavy is in the black this year at 0.82 units on a team record of 11-10. Then again, Foltynewicz (4.49 FIP) is up 1.34 units at 7-10. The Braves are where the value is, folks. Bargain basement.


Shop For Live Odds For Braves vs Giants

Fantasy Corner
Having said all that, current Giants have a combined .931 OPS lifetime against Foltynewicz. Almost all that power lies in the hands of four players, though, and you're not going to find any of them on the waiver wire. But you might find OF Denard Span (.716 OPS). We recommended him a couple of weeks ago when he came off the injured list, and sure enough, Span is on an absolute tear since then, with multi-hit games in seven of his last 13 outings. Still available at 58.2 percent of ESPN leagues at press time, folks.

Free MLB Pick: Braves +155
Best Line Offered: at Youwager
Record: 21-20 ML, 8-5-1 Totals (+5.11 units)

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