Are Totals Set Too High? Underrated Pitching Matchup When Braves Visit Diamondbacks

Zack Greinke

Charles Stark

Wednesday, August 24, 2016 1:45 PM GMT

Although this game holds no significance both pitchers on the mound can be extremely dominant at times so we're going to take a close look at the total for this game for our MLB pick.

Atlanta Braves vs Arizona Diamondbacks
Odds makers have set this total at 8.5 across the board. For my MLB pick I'm going to back under the total with MLB odds of 8.5. Julio Teheran comes in with a bad 3-9 record but a really low ERA for the Braves versus one of last year's most dominant pitchers in Zack Greinke. I fully expect for both of these guys to be lights out today.

 

Atlanta Braves
Julio Teheran takes the mound for Atlanta with a 2.90 ERA and 1.00 whip along with an interesting 3-9 record. It is not often a guy with such strong numbers has such a poor win loss record but so it goes with the Braves this season. Not only has Teheran pitched well overall he has actually been a bit better on the road with a 2.49 ERA and batters hitting just .178 against him this season. In his one start versus the Diamondbacks, he allowed just one earned run off five hits in five innings and although he's had a couple bad outings in his last 10 games he has the ability to come in and put up a lot of zeros. 

What should help him today is that he doesn't give up the long ball all that often having allowed zero home runs in his last four starts. At the plate, Atlanta is arguably the worst hitting team in baseball ranking dead last in runs per game, total bases, and OPS. The only silver lining in this dreadful season is that they don't strike out all that much, but this is a team that can really struggle at times and I have a hard time believing they will be able to have any consistent quality at-bats against Greinke.

 

Arizona Diamondbacks
Zack Greinke gets the start for Arizona with a 4.21 ERA and 1.23 whip and will make his first home start since late June. For the most part he has been good this year but his numbers really ballooned as he got lit up in Boston giving up nine earned runs off a 10 hits in less than two innings just a couple games ago. Since coming back from missing July he has had three road starts including the one in Boston but in his other two games he was decent allowing five total earned runs in 13 innings versus, the Mets and the Padres. At home his ERA is over 5.00 but I expect that to drop today as he should come in against a really weak Atlanta team and dominate. 

Earlier in the season versus the Braves he was decent enough allowing two earned runs in six innings. Offensively Arizona is arguably the best hitting team in baseball with a losing record ranking sixth in total bases and 11th in OPS. However, as far as their team goes the pitching has not been there and they rank second to last in run differential just ahead of their opponent today. They seem to be kind of a feast or famine type of team with the ability to put up over five runs in a hurry or just as easily score only a couple of runs. Over the last 10 games they have been swinging the bat decently well and I expect them to score a bit today but just not enough to help get over this total.

 

Free MLB Pick: Under 8.5 -105
Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle
July record: 13-9
August record: 12-9

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