Are Mariners a Lock MLB Pick to Sweep Rangers Tonight?

Mark Lathrop

Wednesday, April 29, 2015 12:32 PM UTC

Wednesday, Apr. 29, 2015 12:32 PM UTC

King Felix has been stellar so far this season but should the Mariners be considered for MLB picks today as they appear primed for a sweep in Texas? Here is our Wednesday MLB Pick.

The Seattle Mariners go for the sweep in Texas on Wednesday night as they have won two in a row against the host Rangers. Last night, J.A. Happ continued his hot start for the Mariners, picking up 9 K’s while pitching into the 7th inning. The last two starting efforts by Seattle have given the bullpen some much needed rest, although Fernando Rodney saw action for the 3rd night in a row. Ross Detwiler was serviceable for Texas, although it could have been worse if Seattle wasn’t 1-6 with men in scoring position.

Wednesday’s scheduled starters are Mariner ace, Felix Hernandez, and waiver wire pickup, Wandy Rodriguez, of the Rangers. The MLB odds line opened with the Mariners laying plenty of juice, but can be found at -161 at GTBets, with the O/U total sitting at 7.5 runs. The weather is going to be picture perfect and 73F at the game time of 5:05 CST.


Home Starter Info
Wandy Rodriguez was picked up by Texas after being released by Atlanta a few weeks ago, and has made one start, going 5 innings while giving up one run on one strikeout and three walks. Rodriguez has struggled to recover from injury issues in 2013 while with the Pirates, but when healthy, he as posted a reasonable ERA in the upper 3’s for most of his career. Even then, Rodriguez has a career 91-94 record, although that has likely more to do with run support than anything else. Looking at advanced stats, Rodriguez’s velocity and pitch type are almost unchanged from his successful seasons in 2012 and before, so it could be just a situation of Wandy being healthy again. Even when healthy, there are a few Mariners hitters that have given Rodriguez some trouble over his career:

Rickie Weeks: 16-50, .320 AVG, 3 HR, 9 BB, 5 SB, .443 OBP
Nelson Cruz: 4-11, .364 AVG, 3BB, .500 OBP
Logan Morrison: 5-11, .455 AVG, .538 OBP

Seattle should have a chance to keep up their recent trend of struggling with men on base, if nothing else.


Visiting Starter Info
King Felix is 3-0 in four starts this young season with a 1.61 ERA while averaging 8 K’s per game.  Need I say more? Felix has picked up right where he left off in 2014 and shows no signs of slowing down, picking up 1 WAR already, which has him at a pace for nearly 7 WAR. This would exceed his best season ever at 6.2, but it is important to note that this level of performance has been sustained by Felix for an entire season before. Advanced stats indicate that Felix is using his ‘changeup’ quite a bit this season, with fantastic results. I say ‘changeup’ because the pitch comes in at nearly 88 MPH. Regardless, Felix has induced ground balls with this pitch at a high rate this season, a 63.1% rate versus his career rate of 54.4%. This bodes well for this start in Texas, where fly balls can turn into dingers rather quickly.


MLB Betting Verdict 
I think Seattle finally has some momentum going and the pitching staff is showing flashes of what it was billed to be. I don’t believe we would do ourselves any favors by overthinking this pick: an elite pitcher going up a serviceable starter trying to reclaim his career after injury. But since it is obvious, we have to lay the juice, which I have no problem doing in this instance. Shop around for the best line, but take Seattle at -161 (GTBets) as one of your Wednesday MLB picks.

The MLB Pick: Mariners at -161 at GTBets

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