Apply Oddsmakers' Mistake to Today's MLB Picks

Joe Catalano

Tuesday, July 29, 2014 1:36 PM GMT

Tuesday, Jul. 29, 2014 1:36 PM GMT

Tuesday takes a dramatic increase in pitching quality. Will we see a lot of under the totals? That remains to be seen, but we expect winning bets and nothing else when providing you with our picks.

Joe C. Record: 142-128 -20.44 Units
The key is not to have that big losing day and we’ve really been able to stay away from any 0-2 situations. Keep a continuous eye on these daily MLB picks because the best has yet to come.

 

New York Yankees (54-51) vs. Texas Rangers (42-64)
Texas is a Big Underdog At Home…
This is quite tempting after the Rangers took the first game of this series 4-2 yesterday behind Yu Darvish. It wasn’t Darvish’s best game as he allowed 2 home runs to Brett Gardner, but he got the job done.

Tonight, the Yankees send out Brandon McCarthy (5-10, 4.49) to the mound and although McCarthy has been spectacular in his two wins for the Yanks since the trade, he had been ineffective before that for the Diamondbacks. McCarthy is certainly too much of a favorite in this game at -165. Is there any way that Texas can pull this game out at this fantastic price after winning yesterday?

There’s no question that Texas has a chance in this game. The Yankees offense lacks power despite Gardy’s 2 home runs last night. The only other options in the power department for New York are Mark Teixiera and Brian McCann.Teixiera pinch hit yesterday, but he’s had to battle injuries for the good part of two years now. This is Texas starter Nick Martinez’s (1-6, 4.73) game to win.

 

Nick Martinez
There really is not much good to say about Martinez. Opposing hitters are hitting nearly .300 off of him this season. Occasionally, he’ll put up a good performance, but his lack of consistency kills him.

In his last start, he went a modest 5 1/3 innings and allowed just 3 hits in a no-decision to these same Yankees. I’m looking for him to pitch good enough to keep Texas in the game. The Rangers do have capable hitters in Beltre, Rios, and Choo. In fact, J.P. Arencibia was a Yankee killer when he played for the days. Let’s roll the dice and hope that McCarthy goes back to his original form; the reason why Arizona traded him.

Free MLB Pick: Texas +152 at 5 Dimes sportsbook

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Arizona Diamondbacks (46-60) vs. Cincinnati Reds (52-53)
One Game From .500
It’s been an uphill climb with the Reds all season as they haven’t been able to live up to last year’s play and injuries have also been a factor. With a very winnable game tonight against a very ineffective Trevor Cahill (1-7, 5.72), the Reds can reach the .500 mark. Cahill is listed as a relief pitcher and won’t give Arizona a lot of innings. Cincy starts Mike Leake (7-9, 3.73) and if Leake can get some run support, this game should be a “slam dunk” for Cincinnati.

 

The Odds Makers' Mistake
In fact, at -140 with the Reds as the favorite and Leake pitching, the betting odds are way off; the Reds should be a greater favorite. It’s true that the Reds are just 1-9 in their last 10 games, but I’m looking at this from a one game perspective.

 

Billy Hamilton
A big reason why the Reds have slumped has been the leadoff position. At the beginning of the season, people thought that Billy Hamilton was one of the worst and most inept leadoff hitters in a long time and was only at the Major League level due to his speed. Hamilton proved people wrong. Up until July 18th, Hamilton was hitting .282 with 6 HR, 40 RBI, and 41 SB.

In his last 13 at-bats, Hamilton has been hitless and in the last few weeks, he just hasn’t been the same player. Hamilton needs to find his swing or the Reds will be in trouble. Despite his recent slump, Hamilton and the Reds still have enough to beat a lousy Arizona team.

I’m going to take a huge risk on a team that’s 1-9 in their last 10 games because gamblers are risk-takers when they think they have the proper information to support their ideas.

Free MLB Pick: Cincinnati -140 at 5 Dimes – 2 Units 

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