Applied Betting System Suggests Arizona's Run Line is a Solid MLB Pick vs. Cardinals

Ross Benjamin

Wednesday, May 27, 2015 12:59 PM UTC

Wednesday, May. 27, 2015 12:59 PM UTC

Our MLB consultant provides us with a betting preview article on Wednesday’s game between Arizona and St. Louis. This insightful piece concludes with a run-line betting system which has won 77.8% of the time since 2011.

Cards Look to Sweep Diamondbacks
The St. Louis Cardinals host the Arizona Diamondbacks on Wednesday at 8:15 PM ET. According to the MLB betting odds at Pinnacle, St. Louis is a -171 money line favorite, and the posted total is 7.5. Pinnacle has also listed St. Louis at -1.5 (+130) and Arizona +1.5 (-141) on the run-line. Today will be the finale of a three game series in which St. Louis won each of the first two.


Starting Pitchers
Arizona will send out right-hander Josh Collmenter to the mound today. Collmenter has been in horrible form during his previous three starts, posting a mammoth 10.95 ERA, 1.95 WHIP, and allowed four home runs in just 12 1/3 innings pitched. The Diamondbacks hurler is 7-2 over the total in 2015 with a lofty 5.19 ERA. On a positive note, his one career start versus the Cardinals came on 9/28/2014 and he was brilliant in that outing. Collmenter allowed one earned run on only three hits in 8.0 innings of work during a 1-0 loss.

Lance Lynn will make his tenth start of the season for St. Louis on Wednesday. Lynn enters today in fine form during his previous three starts. Lynn is 3-1 in his team starts at home this season with a very good 2.84 ERA, and a better than 4:1 strikeout to walk ratio. Lynn has made five career starts versus Arizona, all have come since 2012, and he compiled a solid 2.89 ERA in those outings.


MLB Run-Line Betting System
The Arizona bullpen has a cumulative 2.86 ERA during their previous ten games. I already alluded to Josh Collmenter’s huge 10.95 ERA over his last three starts. The combination of those two statistical factors, in addition to the current run-line, creates an extremely profitable betting system that I’ll utilize when making one of my MLB picks on Wednesday.

Any road underdog of +1.5 (-115 to -160) on the run-line, with a starting pitcher who has an ERA of 7.50 or more in his last three starts, and their bullpen ERA is 3.00 or less during the last ten games, has seen the road underdog go 70-20 (77.8%) versus the run-line since the start of the 2011 MLB campaign. The road underdog also went 56-34 straight up in those 90 games.

MLB Pick: Arizona +1.5 (-141) on the run-line over St. Louis at Pinnacle

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