Each day during the MLB Playoffs, LT Profits seek out a total that does not add up and offers the most value that day. Here is their Playoff Total Value Play of the Day for Wednesday.
After an early barrage by the road team led to an ‘over’ in Game 1, look for ample scoring again Wednesday night when Jake Peavy and the San Francisco Giants (97-76, 48-39 away) pay a visit to fellow right-hander Yordano Ventura and the Kansas City Royals (97-74, 46-40 home) in Game 2 of the World Series from Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City, MO at 8:07 ET in a game televised nationally on FOX.
The posted total at Bet365 is 7 for this contest with the current odds on the ‘over’ set at a positive +105.
Giants Draw First Blood
The Giants scored three runs in the first inning with two coming on a home run by Hunter Pence and then cruised to a 7-1 victory in Game 1 last night, snapping the Royals’ Major League record for most consecutive wins to begin one post-season at eight. That series opener did go ‘over’ the total however which was much to our delight.
The Royals were slight MLB pick favorites to win this series before Game 1, but with the Giants seizing home field advantage with that opening victory Kansas City is now available at around +170 on the revised series line. This is practically a must-win for the Royals as dropping the first two games at home could prove fatal, Kansas City’s terrific road record this year notwithstanding.
A Bit Shaky in Post-Season
So the Royals turn to their 23-year-old rookie Ventura in this crucial contest, and he definitely has the raw ability to get the job done. After all, he was literally the hardest throwing starting pitcher in all of baseball this year and, like all of the Kansas City starters, Ventura probably deserved better than his 14-10 record due to the Royals’ severe offensive struggles throughout the first half of the season.
The Kansas City offense turned things around over the second half while Ventura remained consistent all year, and thus he went 7-3 with a 3.16 ERA after the All-Star break after being just 7-7 despite a 3.22 ERA before the break. Ventura averaged 96.6 MPH on his fastball this season, barely nipping Garrett Richards of the Los Angeles Angels (96.4) for the highest average velocity in the majors, and Yordano topped out at a blazing 101.9 MPH!
With that being said, Ventura has honestly not been that great this post-season. Of course it all started with his controversial relief appearance vs. the Oakland Athletics in the American League Wild Card Playoff where he was charged with two earned runs in one-third of an inning but actually gave up a three-run homer to the first batter he faced Brandon Moss.
He did then pitch well in his Game 2 start vs. the Angeles in the ALDS, but he was sub-par his last outing in Game 2 of the ALCS vs. the Orioles in Baltimore, allowing four earned runs in 5.2 innings. Sure he should benefit from this being his first ever appearance vs. the Giants, but we still do not expect him to escape totally unscathed.
Benefitted from Ballpark?
Now, Peavy put up surprisingly good numbers in his return to the National League after the Giants acquired him from the Boston Red Sox, at last on the surface. Granted his 6-4 record was not that special, but he had a sparkling 2.17 ERA and 1.04 WHIP over 78.2 innings in a Giant uniform, amazingly allowing two earned runs or less in each of his nine regular season starts.
However, we always felt that the former Cy Young winner Peavy was overrated in the early portion of his career while pitching his home games in pitcher-friendly Petco Park in San Diego, and that his mediocre at best numbers after he left San Diego were much closer to his true ability. Well, it is worth noting that he now once again pitches his home games in a pitcher’s park in AT&T Park and that may have contributed to his good mainstream numbers with the Giants.
For evidence, look no further than his xFIP of just 4.01, as xFIP is adjusted for ballparks. Thus, Peavy’s San Francisco numbers were probably a mirage and he now must deal with an American League opponent on the road. And do not forget that the Royals got to Peavy for six earned runs on 10 hits in just five innings the last time he pitched in this stadium while with the Red Sox.
All Short Outings
Finally, an interesting fact about Peavy is that he has yet to go as long as just six innings in any of his seven career post-season starts! That includes his two outings this year where he lasted 5.2 innings vs. the Washington Nationals in the NLDS and just four innings vs. the St. Louis Cardinals in the NLCS.
Look for both teams to put enough runs on the board this evening to produce the second ‘over’ in as many games of this World Series in Game 2 from Kansas City on Wednesday.
MLB Pick: Giants, Royals ‘over’ 7 (+105)