Each day LT Profits Sports seeks an MLB overlay that has a better chance of cashing than its odds, offering long term value. Here is their Underdog Value Play for Thursday.
The road teams have a chance to finish 3-1 in the 2014 Freeway Series Thursday night when Hyun-Jin Ryu and the Los Angeles Dodgers (65-50, 35-23 away) pay a visit to C.J. Wilson and the Los Angeles Angels (67-46, 38-20 home) in the final game of the four-game set from Angel Stadium in Anaheim, CA at 10:05 ET.
The posted money line at Bet365 has the Dodgers as a tiny underdog for this contest at current odds of +101.
Dodgers Scored as Bigger Dogs Wednesday
After these teams split two games at Dodger Stadium on Monday and Tuesday, we cashed a nice underdog ticket on the Dodgers +135 with the scenery shifting here to Anaheim last night as Dan Haren snapped out of his slump and out-dueled Matt Shoemaker 2-1. Thus the Dodgers maintained their 2½-game first-place lead over the San Francisco Giants in the National League West.
The Angels may be the most unfortunate team in baseball in that they have been the second best MLB pick in the Major Leagues this season at 67-46 but have the terrible luck of being in the same division as the team with the best record, the 69-44 Oakland Athletics, and therefore trail Oakland by two games in the American League West.
The Best Third Starter in National League?
The Dodgers have been renowned for their 1-2 punch of Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke, but very quietly and without nearly as much fanfare, Ryu could arguably be considered the best number three starter in the National League as he is now 12-5 with a 3.39 ERA and 111 strikeouts vs. 24 walks in 124.2 innings after posting eight Quality Starts in his last nine outings.
Best of all only one of those eight Quality Starts was of the “cheap” variety where he just met the minimum requirement of allowing three earned runs in six innings, as he allowed two runs or less in six of the other seven starts and three runs in seven innings in the other.
On top of all this, Ryu tossed a masterpiece in his only career start vs. the Angels last season, hurling a Complete Game two-hit shutout with seven strikeouts and not a single walk back home in Los Angeles.
Wilson Has Been Awful
To say that Wilson is in a slump right now would be the understatement of the century as he has been just god awful over his last five starts. Yes, we had a bothersome ankle that landed him on the Disabled List after four dreadful performances, but his return start last week may have been his worst outing yet as he lasted just 1.1 innings vs. the Rays in Tampa while being charged with six earned runs on six hits plus two walks!
Add that to his four starts before the DL stint and Wilson has an atrocious 12.50 ERA and 2.61 WHIP over his last five outings while not lasting beyond five innings in any of them! As if that were not distressing enough, Wilson was not good the last time he faced the Dodgers last season either, allowing six earned runs on nine hits in 4.2 innings.
Best Road Team in Major Leagues
You may recall that one of the reasons we gave for taking the Dodgers at a bigger price last night was that they had the best road record in the National League. Well, they improved that record to 35-23 after Wednesday, meaning they have now moved up to owning the best road record in the entire Major Leagues!
That little tidbit combined with the directions in which the starting pitchers are heading has us liking the Dodgers again as miniscule underdogs in the Freeway Series from Anaheim Thursday.
MLB Pick: Dodgers +101