Angels-Red Sox Pitching Duel Makes ‘Under’ the MLB Pick

Charles Stark

Monday, July 20, 2015 11:35 AM GMT

I think we have 2 quality pitchers on the mound today to please our betting appetite. Both can be really tough at times & this will be more of a pitcher's duel than people realize.

Odds
MLB odds makers have come out with the total of 8 for this game which seems about right. A couple places right now you can get this number at +100 like Pinnacle sports book, and 5Dimes sports book. For me that is good value, and anytime you don't have to pay juice with a matchup like this I think that is a solid way to go.

 

On the mound
For the Red Sox rookie Eduardo Rodriguez gets the start with a 3.59 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. He has been pretty solid in his major league debut season even though he has had two rough outings, once against the Baltimore Orioles and once against Toronto Jays, two very good hitting teams. After allowing six earned runs in just three innings against Baltimore he has allowed only four earned runs in his last three games over 17 innings. The Red Sox are pretty high on this guy and he has the kind of stuff that could keep the Angels down in the numbers. For the Angels Hector Santiago will take the mound with a 2.33 ERA and 1.10 WHIP, also without argument he has been the Angels ace so far this season. I was surprised when writing my Cy Young futures article for the American League he was not even listed in the odds, but he has been stellar so far this season. In his last three games he has only allowed two earned runs over 21 innings, and at home this year he has been lights out with a 2.25 ERA and a WHIP  just over 1.00. He has already faced Boston once this year in Boston allowing three earned runs over six innings.

 

Batters
At the plate both the Angels and the Red Sox are middle tiered type offenses. The Angels rank 16th in the major leagues in runs scored per game with the Red Sox right behind them ranked 18th. In OPS they are also right next to each other with Boston ranking 15th and the Angels 16th, and in batting average they are both rank in the middle of the league with Boston 13th and the Angels 22nd. Although both these teams have some star power, statistically on the year they have been just pretty good.

If Rodriguez pitches like he is capable of and Santiago continues his dominance like he has all season I think we will see a low-scoring game in this matchup. It might be tempting to back the over in this matchup with the big names at the plate both these teams possess, but don't buy into that. Both of these pitchers are very solid and I am looking more like a final of around 3-2.

MLB Pick: Under 8