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Angels vs. Marlins MLB Picks: Cy Young Favorite to Dominate L.A. Bats

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Angels vs. Marlins MLB Picks: Cy Young Favorite to Dominate L.A. Bats
Sandy Alcantara of the Miami Marlins reacts after retiring the side during the fourth inning against the Philadelphia Phillies. Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images via AFP.

The Los Angeles Angels and Miami Marlins meet for the third time this season in the opening game of a mini two-game series. We have highlighted the odds, line movement, and best picks for Tuesday’s Angels-Marlins interleague clash.

The Angels swept a two-game home series against the Marlins in April, winning by scores of 6-2 and 4-3. These two teams rarely meet on the diamond, as they had not faced each other since 2017 before the first series this season.

Here are my MLB picks and predictions for Tuesday’s game between the Angels and Marlins (odds via BetMGM, DraftKings Sportsbook, FanDuel Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Angels vs. Marlins Game Info

Date/Time: Tuesday, July 5, 6:40 p.m. ET
Location: LoanDepot Park, Miami, FL
Weather: Indoors

Angels vs. Marlins Odds

Angels vs. Marlins Odds Analysis

The lookahead line on Saturday morning had the Marlins favored at -115, but their moneyline odds have since skyrocketed to a minimum of -140. Early sharp action has appeared on Miami, as 41% of the tickets but 62% of the cash has backed the Marlins' moneyline odds.

All sportsbooks are in unison on the 7.5 projected run total. As of early Sunday morning, the Over had received 59% of the bets but just 9% of the cash.

Angels vs. Marlins Projected Pitchers

Noah Syndergaard (5-6, 3.86 ERA, 1.18 WHIP) vs. Sandy Alcantara (8-3, 1.95 ERA, 0.95 WHIP)

Noah Syndergaard earned a win for the first time in his last five outings in his previous start against the Chicago White Sox. He held Chicago to three runs over seven innings, and his seven strikeouts were his most in seven starts. Syndergaard has been inconsistent, with quality starts in two of his previous five appearances, but also has two starts where he allowed five earned runs in that span.

There have been just 13 complete games this season, and Sandy Alcantara has thrown two of them. One of them took place in his last start, when he beat his former team, the St. Louis Cardinals. It took every bit of Alcantara's gem to beat St. Louis, as it was Miami's first win against the Cardinals since June 2019.

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Angels vs. Marlins Picks

  • Moneyline: Marlins (-140 via DraftKings) ★★★★
  • Over/Under: Under 7 (-105 via BetMGM) ★★
  • Player prop: Sandy Alcantara Over 7.5 strikeouts (+120 via FanDuel) ★★★

Angels vs. Marlins ML Pick

Marlins ML (-140)

Alcantara has become the overwhelming favorite for the National League Cy Young Award, as the next pitcher closest to his current +185 at DraftKings is Milwaukee's Corbin Burnes at +550. Alcantara's 115 1/3 innings pitched are 11 more than the next closest pitcher, and he ranks third in ERA (1.95), eighth in WHIP (0.95), and fifth in OBA (.198).

The Marlins are 8-2 in Alcantara's previous 10 starts, including wins over five teams over .500 (Cardinals, New York Mets, San Francisco Giants, and Atlanta Braves twice). Thus, laying -140 moneyline odds to back Alcantara and the Marlins against an Angels team that is seven games under .500 and has lost three straight games is a steal.

Angels vs. Marlins O/U Pick

Under 7 (-105)

Though Alcantara's numbers have been solid all season, he has improved upon them in his last seven starts, pitching to a 1.78 ERA and posting a 0.83 WHIP in that span. In addition, he has a 1.80 ERA in eight home starts and has allowed just four home runs in 60 home innings.

We are less confident in this play than we are on the moneyline, given Syndergaard's propensity for clunkers. He has allowed at least four earned runs in three of his previous seven starts. In addition, he has pitched to a 6.53 ERA in five road starts, and his K/9 rate is 5.79 on the road compared to 6.92 at home. However, he allowed just two hits in 4 2/3 gutty innings against the Los Angeles Dodgers in his last road start and should be more economical with his pitches against a less-powerful Marlins lineup.

Angels vs. Marlins Prop Pick

Alcantara Over 7.5 strikeouts (+120)

The Angels rank dead-last in the league in strikeout percentage, whiffing 26.2% of the time. That problem was exacerbated in Sunday's series finale against the Houston Astros when they tied the MLB record for a nine-inning game with 20 strikeouts. That does not bode well for their chances of success against Alcantara, who ranks ninth in the National League with 97 strikeouts this season.

Where to Bet Angels-Marlins Picks

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Angels-Marlins picks made 7/5/2022 at 6:20 a.m. ET.