After quite a few runs yesterday today I'm going to back under the total with Los Angeles Dodgers and the Atlanta Braves as two good lefties take the mound.
I was a little surprised MLB odds makers come out with this game at 7.5 on the total. To me at first it seemed a little bit low with these two pitchers who are decent but not dominating, but the more I dug into some numbers what we're getting is good value. There are two books that have this game at under the total at 7.5 and some low juice, Pinnacle sports book at -102 and 5 dimes at -105. At Heritage sports have under the 7.5 at +100, and I think that at all three of these places that is good value to take the under.
Alex Wood gets the start for the Braves with a 3.76 ERA and 1.45 WHIP, and is simply not had the type of year the Braves were expecting. At home he has a 5.18 ERA and he is coming off a seven earned runs in only five innings performance in Colorado, but again that's Colorado. I think Wood is a much better pitcher than how he is performing this season, after all he does have a career 3.15 ERA and 1.27 WHIP in 84 major league games pitched and 53 starts. For the Dodgers six year veteran Brett Anderson will take the mound with a 3.17 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. He is arguably the most underrated starting pitcher in the National League and has a road ERA of 2.92. He's had a couple subpar performances his last two games and I look for him much like Wood to bounce back today with a good performance.
At the Plate
While the Dodgers are ranked from the middle to upper part of the league in some offensive categories the Braves rank mostly in the bottom half. The Dodgers rank 13th in the league in runs scored per game with Atlanta ranked 24th, and in OPS the Dodgers are ranked fourth in the Braves again 24th. In batting average they're right next to each other with the Dodgers at 13th in the Braves the 14th in the major leagues. After combining for 25 hits yesterday I don't anticipate these teams to have as many quality at-bats today against the two pitchers they are facing.
With a 7-5 final yesterday and 25 hits combined both these teams had a lot of nice at-bats. Today though I think there can be challenges a little bit with Anderson and Wood on the mound. I think the odds makers know this and this is why the total is set below eight to look for a final closer to around 4-2 or lower, back the under with confidence.
MLB Pick: Under at 5Dimes