Analysis of Zack Greinke's Winless Streak and His MLB Odds to Win the NL Cy Young

Jake Walker

Saturday, June 20, 2015 11:20 PM GMT

Will Zack Greinke's lack of run support when he pitches put extra pressure on him? Can we expect the Dodgers' offense to change this trend soon? Is he a valuable MLB pick to win the NL Cy Young?

Zack Greinke is coming off one of his best starts of the season but lack of run support cost him the win, just like in most of his recent outings. Will this lack of offense when he pitches add unnecessary stress and pressure on him? How should we place our MLB picks when Greinke starts? Can we expect the Dodgers' offense to change this trend soon?

Greinke has been outstanding this season. He is third in the Majors with a 1.81 ERA and second with an 0.94 WHIP, but he hasn't received enough run support over his last starts.

The right-hander pitched one of his best games of the season on Thursday, throwing  seven scoreless innings against the Rangers. He struck out eight and walked none and even had a perfect game into the 4th inning but he ended up with a no decision as the Dodgers rallied to win 1-0 on a walk-off balk in the ninth inning, leaving Kenley Jansen the winner.

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Putting Things Into Perspective
Zack Greinke is pitching  extremely well but he can't win a game. He went 5-0 with a 1.56 ERA over his first six starts but he is 0-2 with a 1.99 ERA in his last eight outings (six quality starts), with the Dodgers scoring less than three runs in six of them. Greinke has posted a 1.83 ERA in nine home starts this season but he is only 2-1, mostly because the Dodgers have scored just six runs in his last five outings at Dodger Stadium.

 

 

Will Greinke Worry?
Greinke knows that his teammates can hit home runs and score runs. The Dodgers are currently second in the majors with 85 home runs and tied for 10th with 290 runs scored. It's concerning that they can't provide that kind of offensive production when he is pitching and it could add unnecessary stress and pressure on him, but Greinke learned to take the things he cannot control in stride while pitching for a Royals team that averaged 64.5 wins per season over his seven years with them.

Pitching great and not earning a personal “W” truly does not seem to be eating away at Greinke. His off-speed pitches have been particularly effective in his last three outings, as he has posted a 1.24 ERA with two walks and 23 strikeouts in 21 2/3 innings.

 

Greinke's Chances to Win the National League Cy Young
In 2009, the Royals finished with a dismal 65-97 record and Greinke won the American League Cy Young after going 16-8 with a 2.16 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP in 33 starts with six complete games and three shutouts.

Greinke is in Cy Young form this season, posting a 1.81 ERA with an 0.94 WHIP with 83 strikeouts in 94.2 innings. Unfortunately, he is just 5-2. If starts racking up wins, he can be worth a look at +800 MLB odds to win the National League Cy Young at PaddyPower and upset favorites like Max Scherzer and Gerrit Cole.  The Dodgers are currently at +600 to win the World Series at BetOnline and if Greinke keeps pitching the way he has, the wins will eventually come and he will give the Dodgers a better chance to improve on last year's results.