Anaheim Owns the Upper Hand vs. Rangers, Lock Santiago & Angels with your MLB Picks

Darin Zank

Saturday, October 3, 2015 12:19 PM UTC

Saturday, Oct. 3, 2015 12:19 PM UTC

The Rangers are in the playoffs, & the Angels are still alive in the chase, following a victory Friday night. How are we playing the MLB odds on Saturday afternoon's Angels-Rangers bout?

Angels-Rangers Saturday Odds
As of early Saturday morning the MLB odds market had not yet lined this match-up between Texas with Colby Lewis against Anaheim with lefty Hector Santiago, and we weren't quite sure why.


The Situation
These teams have split the first two games of this four-game series, following Anaheim's 2-1 victory Friday night. So the Angels have won eight of their last 10 games, while the loss snapped a three-game winning streak for Texas.

The Rangers have already clinched a spot in the playoffs, or at least in a one-game playoff to make the playoffs. Texas still owns a magic number of one to win the AL West, and avoid that wild-card nonsense.

Anaheim, meanwhile, can't win the West, and Friday's victory only allowed it to remain one game behind Houston in the battle for the second American League wild-card slot.

The Angels now lead this season series 11 games to six, with the totals splitting 8-8-1.


Saturday's Starters
Lewis (17-9, 4.53), by our tough accounting, is 18-for-32 on quality starts this year, and three for his last four. Monday he got rocked by Detroit for six runs in less than five innings of work, but over his three starts previous to that he held opponents to four runs through 21 innings.

Texas is 17-15 in Lewis' starts, with the OVERS going 19-11.

In four starts this season against Anaheim, including a disastrous outing in July, Lewis has allowed 20 ER through 21 2/3 innings; the Rangers are 1-3 in those games, with the totals leaning UNDER 3-1.

Santiago (9-9, 3.52) is 13-for-31 on quality starts, and 0 for his last three. Monday he gave up four runs – three earned – in 5 2/3 innings against Oakland, and over his last three starts he's allowed 10 ER through 11 1/3 innings.

For the season the Angels are 17-14 in Santiago's starts, with the UNDERS going 16-14.

In five starts this season against Texas Santiago has allowed just five ER and 17 hits through 30 1/3 innings; Anaheim is 3-2 in those games, while thanks to some great run support the OVERS are 4-1.


Saturday's Batting Splits
Anaheim ranks 26th in the Bigs this season against right-handed pitching with a .307 team on-base percentage, and 16th with a .403 team slugging percentage.

Texas, on the other hand, ranks 12th against left-handed pitching with a .321 team OBP and 11th with a .415 team slugging percentage.


Ballpark Totals Factor
Games played at Globe Life Park this season are now 37-35 on the UNDERS, even though they've averaged 9.6 runs per, third-most among all ML ballparks.


Angels-Rangers Free Picks
We whiffed with our free MLB picks on Friday night's game, so all we can do is pick ourselves up, dust ourselves off and dive back in.

Based on their recent track records against today's opponents we give Santiago the edge in the pitching match-up, but Texas owns an edge with the sticks. Ultimately, though, Anaheim seems to own the upper hand in this series this season, and may go off getting an underdog price. We like the value with the Angels for Saturday.

MLB Pick: Anaheim

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