American League Teams That Offer Run Line Profit For Your MLB Picks In 2016

Joe Gavazzi

Thursday, March 31, 2016 5:42 PM UTC

Thursday, Mar. 31, 2016 5:42 PM UTC

There wasn’t much choice back in 1979. If you wanted to know something about an outcome of a game, you spent time logging the results by hand. Lucky for you, I got all the MLB odds you need.

For the most part, no such issues exist today. For the last 20 years, with the advent of the high-tech era, data bases filled with historical results have proliferated. As long as you know the right hypothesis to query, or be willing to be pleasantly surprised by the contrary results, the answer can come to you in a split second. I have no problem with such a handicapping process, except for the fact that one does not learn nearly as much about a team or its tendencies as when you log the results by hand. 

That is exactly what I have done for the last six seasons in developing my own proprietary research into run line results in MLB. There is ample data on the internet which will give you MLB team run line trends for home/road or W/L splits. But this data was not answering my query of how teams do against the run line IF THEY WIN OR LOSE THE GAME, at home and on the road. Now with six years of data, numerous hours of hand logging results and increasing experience in how to correlate the baseball handicap with the run line result, my MLB RUN LINE DOGS HAVE SHOWN INCREASING PROFIT EACH AND EVERY SEASON. 

Click & Compare All Props On Offer & World Series Odds

For example, last MLB season using the concept of SUPER SURGERS VS TOWEL TOSSERS, which has shown such incredible success for us in college football and basketball, I transferred the process to MLB thinking. Beginning with August 1st and running till the end of September, I isolated groups of teams that had tossed the towel, and who were super surging. If you followed MLB at all last season, you knew that such teams as Philadelphia, Atlanta, Miami, Milwaukee, Cincinnati, San Diego, and Colorado tossed the towel early in the National League. The combined RUN LINE record of playing against these teams on the road was 98-26. Sure, most of them were underdogs in these spots of 150 or more. But when you translated changing the favorite into a run line proposition, in which you TOOK MONEY AS AN UNDERDOG, IT RESULTED IN HUGE PROFIT!  The run line results of these teams when playing at home was even more profitable. Playing against these seven National League Towel Tossers when at home last August and September, resulted in a record of 108-19. Again, WE TURN HUGE PROFITS fading these teams on their home field by translating them into run line underdogs. This is just one example of ways that I’ve used my run line research over the years. 

Again this season, I will be doing my daily logging by hand of run line results, and looking for emerging patterns using home/road dichotomies, momentum, and isolating hot and cold starters. Again I anticipate huge profit. Just to tease you a bit more, let’s now look at some American League team trends from recent seasons which may point the way to profits this season. Caveat emptor, however, as I’ve seen these trends turn on a dime with managerial changes, or trades that have altered a team’s make up and chemistry. 


Toronto Blue Jays
The biggest run line profit team of the last two seasons. 146 of their 176 home and road wins combined have been by 2 or more runs. That is an astounding 83%. 


Boston Red Sox
Fenway Park is known as a hitter’s paradise, a high-scoring park. 67 of the 81 games at Fenway last season were decided by 2 or more runs. Again, 83%. And of Boston’s 38 home losses last season, 34 of them were by 2 or more runs, 89%!


Cleveland Indians
The Tribe continued a pattern that has not been unusual for them in recent seasons. Did you know that 129 of their 162 games (80%) were decided by 2 or more runs? In fact, when Cleveland lost, they lost big both home and road with 63 of their 80 losses (79%) by 2 or more runs.


Kansas City Royals
The World Series Champs had a huge dichotomy. 35 of 44 Royals ROAD WINS were by 2 or more runs (80%), while 25 of their 30 home losses (83%) came by 2 or more runs.


Minnesota Twins
That exact pattern was unusual but true for the Minnesota Twins, as now for the second straight year 28 of 35 road wins (80%) came by 2 or more runs, while for that same two year period AT HOME 66 of 80 (83%) Minnesota losses were by 2 or more runs.

Remember, these are the team results IF they win or lose the game at a line of -1- runs. To approximate the success of these numbers, it is important that you do your handicapping homework and isolate winning selections (often easier than you think since we are using many big money line favorites then converting them into underdogs). 

Once again, I’ll be not only doing my handicapping & MLB picks this season, but also logging every game on the run line to isolate this year’s patterns THAT WILL TURN FAVORITES INTO UNDERDOGS INTO PROFIT.

But wait! ...there’s more

Not content to rest on the laurels of my outstanding money line results, and deciding that I CAN SLEEP WHEN I DIE, I’ve decided to delve in to isolating winners on first five inning plays. I have already created my hypothesis and will begin logging each of the 162 box scores of each of the 30 teams by hand to isolate five IP winners in the MLB odds this season. Stay tuned for the results of that research and what I hope to be results that are hugely profitable for all. I hope to have you along for the ride this season. It’s spring time…and the winning is easy! It’s time to PLAY BALL!

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