American League Predictions: Value on Backing the Underdog in Twins vs. Rangers

Charles Stark

Wednesday, April 26, 2017 3:04 PM UTC

Wednesday, Apr. 26, 2017 3:04 PM UTC

Today we are going to look at the game where the Twins travel to take on the Rangers. Oddsmakers have come out making Texas a decent favorite in this matchup, but is there any value in backing Hector Santiago and Minnesota?

Minnesota Twins

Hector Santiago takes the mound for Minnesota and comes in with a 2.19 ERA and 0.97 whip in four appearances this season. Santiago has been tough allowing a combined six earned runs over 24 innings of work against some decent hitting teams and I like the value on backing him today on the plus money line. 

Formerly pitching for the Angels he has faced Texas a lot in his career and over the last three seasons, he has actually seen them more than any other team, facing them 16 times in that stretch. Although he has an ERA over 4.00 against Texas, this Texas team is not quite as good of a hitting team as the ones he faced in the past and still, the Rangers are hitting just .244 against him. 

I think this puts some pretty good value on backing him today as a good veteran pitcher to come out and give Minnesota a shot at the win. At the plate, Minnesota has been less than stellar but they are being very patient ranking first in the major league in walks per game which is led to a good on-base percentage. Expect for them to plate at least a few today.


Texas Rangers

Cole Hamels gets the start for Texas and the veteran left-hander comes in with a 2.77 ERA and 1.04 whip. Like Santiago, he’s been really solid this early start of the season but to me, this game is more of a coin toss so I will take the plus money on the Twins. Hamels has faced Minnesota only a couple times over the past few seasons. But he has not boded well for him in those chances with the Twins garnering 10 earned runs in his eight innings pitched over two appearances along with hitting .385 against him. That is not the guts of me backing Minnesota today but that could linger in his mind that he has had basically zero success against them. 

At the plate, Texas is simply not hitting the ball very well batting just .211 as a team and averaging 7.00 hits per game both which ranks them 28th in major league baseball. For me, this boils down to the value and this game to go either way essentially so I will gladly take some plus money fading the light hitting Rangers.


Minnesota Twins vs Texas Rangers  

Oddsmakers have come out making Minnesota the underdog in this spot and for my MLB pick, I will be backing them as Santiago takes the mound. This is good value on a good major league pitcher with statistically the better hitting team that gets on base more.

 Free MLB Pick: Twins +138Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

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