American League Pitching Report for MLB Bettors

Ross Benjamin

Monday, July 7, 2014 3:44 PM UTC

Monday, Jul. 7, 2014 3:44 PM UTC

Our MLB betting odds guru takes a long look at three of the premier starting pitching matchups this upcoming week involving American League teams. Are you looking for any edge you can find with your sports betting? If so, then this is a must read!

Wednesday 7/9
Los Angeles Dodgers (Greinke) vs. Detroit Tigers (Scherzer) 1:05 PM ET

The Dodgers Zach Greinke has been superb in his last 2-starts posting a 1.20 ERA while striking out 18 and walking just 2. Both of those outings resulted in Dodger wins. The Dodgers have gone 11-7 versus the money line with Greinke as their starting pitcher, and the right-hander has posted a stellar 2.66 ERA, and a better than 5:1 strikeout to walk ratio in those outings.

The Tigers will counter with the 2013 American League Cy Young winner Max Scherzer. The Tigers ace has displayed splendid form over his last 3-starts posting an excellent 1.71 ERA, a 0.90 WHIP, and a 7:1 strikeout to walk ratio. The Tigers are 7-1 versus the money line at home this season when Scherzer is their starter. In those 8 starts at Comerica Park Scherzer has posted a solid 3.52 ERA, a 1.06 WHIP, and a better than 5:1 strikeout to walk ratio. Scherzer has allowed 2 earned runs or less in 11 of his 18-starts in 2014.

Advantage: I give the slightest of edges to Max Scherzer over Zach Grienke solely because of his excellent track record in home starts.

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Thursday 7/10
Chicago White Sox (Quintana) vs. Boston Red Sox (Lester) 4:05 PM ET
The White Sox will send southpaw Jose Quintana to the hill for this matinee affair. Quintana has been stellar over his last 3-starts posting a microscopic 0.42 ERA, a better than 4:1 strikeout to walk ratio, and all 3 of those outings stayed under the total. The lefty has been very good in his 7-starts during day games this season posting a 2.51 ERA, and 5 of those 7 outings stayed under the total. The White Sox have gone just 7-11 versus the money line this season when Quintana is their starter, despite the fact he’s posted a solid 3.20 ERA in those 18-outings. The White Sox hurler has allowed just 6 home runs in 112 1/3 inning of work this season. That translates to 1 home run allowed per 18.7 innings pitched, and that’s an absolutely outstanding ratio.

The Red Sox will go with a southpaw of their own with veteran John Lester set to go. Lester has been in exceptional form over his last 5-starts posting a terrific 0.96 ERA, 0.74 WHIP, and a better than 5:1 strikeout to walk ratio. The Red Sox have gone 5-0 versus the money line in those 5-starts, along with 4 of the 5 staying under the total. Like his adversary on the mound, Lester has a superb home runs allowed to innings pitch ratio. He’s allowed just 8 home runs in 122.0 innings, or an average of 1 homer given up per 15.3 innings pitched. The Red Sox have gone 11-7 versus the money line this season with Lester as their starter, and have gone under the total in 12 of those 18-games. Lester has seen 6 of his 8-starts in day games this season go under the total, and he’s posted a sparkling 2.62 ERA in those appearances.

Advantage: These are two red-hot pitchers with no clear advantage for either one in this matchup. When considering the fact that both of these teams have depended on the long ball to generate a lot of their offense this season, and that neither of these starters are prone to allowing home runs, I look for this contest to be a low scoring pitcher’s duel, making the Under our recommended MLB betting pick.

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Friday 7/11
Oakland A’s (Samardzija) vs. Seattle (Hernandez) 10:10 PM ET
The A’s will go with newly acquired Jeff Samardzija on the mound. He’s coming off a terrific debut start for his new club in this past Sunday in the A’s 4-2 home win over the Blue Jays. In that start the flame-throwing right-hander went 7.0 innings while allowing just 1 earned run, 4-hits, and struck out 5 while walking just 1. Samardzija has gone an abysmal 3-14 versus the money line this season despite a tremendous 2.83 ERA in those 17-starts. Keep in mind the first 16-starts came as a member of the lowly Chicago Cubs. The Cubs provided Samardzija with a horrible 2.6 runs per game in those 16-games.

The Mariners will go with their ace Felix Hernadez. King Felix” as he’s affectionately known in Seattle, is having a Cy Young type season thus far. The Mariners have gone 13-6 versus the money line with Hernandez as their starter. The right-hander has posted a superb 2.11 ERA, a 0.89 WHIP, and a better than 6:1 strikeout to walk ratio in those 19-starts. Hernandez has allowed 2 earned runs or less in each of his previous 10-starts.

Advantage:  Felix Hernandez has gone 3-0 versus the money line versus Oakland this season with a 2.49 ERA. This will be the first time that the Mariners will have seen Jeff Samardzija this season. In an otherwise toss up regarding starting pitching advantage, I will give the slightest of nods to Samardzija, solely on the basis of the Mariners unfamiliarity with the tall right-hander.

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