American League Offers Early Betting Value

Ian Cameron

Friday, July 8, 2016 9:53 PM UTC

Friday, Jul. 8, 2016 9:53 PM UTC

Read on as sports handicapper Ian Cameron provides a look at MLB Overnight Betting Lines for the games taking place on Saturday and get those early lines going.

Los Angeles Angels vs. Baltimore Orioles
Nick Tropeano is not a pitcher that I see as a viable option long-term as a starter in this LA Angels rotation. He has a solid 3.28 ERA this season but there are some strong warning signs that regression could be forthcoming for him as his FIP stands at 4.90 and his xFIP is 5.05 and his walk rate of 4.33 walks per 9 innings are not ideal. He has a low ground ball rate of 33.3% which is a particularly bad profile to have here faced the home run hitting Baltimore Orioles here at Camden Yards. I think he could struggle here especially when he gave up 2 home runs in his last start and first one since returning from the DL against a light-hitting Tampa Bay Rays team.

On the flip side, Yovani Gallardo is not a pitcher I trust to shut down quality hitters and he labored mightily in his most recent start against the LA Dodgers as he struggled to get through 4 innings allowing 4 runs on 6 hits and Gallardo has yielded at least one home run in each of his last five starts. Both of these bullpens have been hittable lately and Baltimore’s pen has suffered in terms of their recent performance slipping a bit due to the problems with their starters not pitching deep into games and that could continue here with Gallardo failing to pitch beyond 6 innings in 10 straight outings. I expect plenty of runs and crooked numbers here sending this game Over the total as my MLB pick.

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":2992281, "sportsbooksIds":[93,1096,169,999996,139], "LineTypeId":3, "PeriodTypeId":1 }[/]

Free MLB Pick: Over 10 -108  
Best Line Offered: at Heritage


Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers
Ricky Nolasco has had a rough season for the Minnesota Twins with a 5.26 ERA and has been even worse in night games where he owns a 7.04 ERA in 8 night starts this season and the Twins are 7-1 to the Over in Nolasco’s 8 night time starts, 5-1 to the Over in his 6 road starts and 12-3-2 to the Over in his 17 starts overall this season. Texas continues to hit at a very productive clip and has scored 46 runs in their last 10 games and they’ve had to because their starting rotation remains battered by injuries to Yu Darvish, Derek Holland, and Colby Lewis. As a result, pitchers like Nick Martinez are in the starting rotation right now for Texas when they shouldn’t be.

Martinez is simply not starting pitching material in the Majors. Martinez has surrendered 15 runs in 19.2 innings over four starts and has not pitched more than 6 innings in any of those outings and the Over is 3-1 in his 4 starts. The lack of innings being eaten by Texas starters has left the Rangers bullpen in a recent state of disarray as they are being taxed and overworked and it has left them vulnerable to giving up runs late in games. Texas bullpen has a brutal 7.36 ERA in their last 10 games and that unit has been throwing gas on the fire late in games on a routine basis. This is a very high total for MLB odds in the 11 to 11.5 range but it is warranted and I still think this game has a good shot to get Over this number..

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":2992269, "sportsbooksIds":[93,169,238,999996,43], "LineTypeId":3, "PeriodTypeId":1 }[/]

Free MLB Pick: Over 11 -125  
Best Line Offered: at TheGreek

comment here