Each day LT Profits Sports seeks an MLB overlay that has a better chance of cashing than its odds, offering long term value. Here is their Underdog Value Play for Wednesday.
A starting pitching edge could give the road underdogs value Wednesday night when Henderson Alvarez and the Miami Marlins (73-77, 33-43 away) pay a visit to fellow right-hander Dillon Gee and the New York Mets (73-79, 38-39 home) in the final game of a three-game series from Citi Field in Flushing, NY at 7:10 ET in a game available on SNY.
The posted money line at Pinnacle Sports has Miami as a small underdog for this contest at current odds of +102.
Rubber Game of Series
The Marlins have gone through their share of adversity this year, first losing stud ace Jose Fernandez early on to Tommy John surgery and then more recently losing Giancarlo Stanton on his way to a possible National League MVP Award when he was beaned by a pitch. Through it all Miami has continued to play hard and the Fish had scored 11 runs in two wins prior to last night’s 9-1 loss, including a 6-5 win in the series opener that makes tonight the rubber game.
The Mets have been surprisingly decent MLB picks at home this year at 38-39 considering they are one of the worst home-hitting teams in the majors with their personnel not tailored to the vast dimensions of their home ballpark. Thus, they are batting just .220 while averaging 3.53 runs per game overall at Citi Field for the entire season.
Picked Up the Slack for Fernandez
That anemic offense by the Mets in Flushing can only help Alvarez, not that he needs that much help given the fine year that he is having. Perhaps no Marlin pitcher has picked up the slack more in Fernandez’s absence than Alvarez has, as he actually deserves better than his 10-6 record considering his 2.81 ERA overall.
Alvarez comes off of yet another strong outing at Philadelphia vs. the Phillies on Friday where again all that he received for his troubles was a no-decision, as he allowed just one run in seven innings with the run scoring on a wild pitch, but he received no support in a game that Miami eventually lost 3-1.
Alvarez has also been busy vs. the Mets this season facing them five times already, and he allowed three earned runs or less in four of those five starts including two scoreless outings. And one of those was a Complete Game six-hit shutout down in Miami.
Now, Gee has had some nice stretches for the Mets this season, but at the end of the day he is just 7-7 with a rather disappointing 3.80 ERA. Perhaps the most disappointing aspect of Gee’s season is that unlike some other Met pitchers, he has been unable to take advantage of the large dimensions of this stadium, as his numbers here are right in line with his overall numbers at 5-3 with just a 3.72 ERA and 1.24 WHIP.
Furthermore Gee seems to be regressing recently allowing 29 baserunners in 18.1 innings (1.58 WHIP) while posting an ordinary 3.93 ERA over his last three starts. And although the Marlins are batting just .235 vs. right-handers on the road this season, they have improved to .258 vs. righties over the last 10 games overall, which is ironic considering Stanton’s injury.
Always Give Marlins a Chance
Finally, even when Alvarez is not getting wins himself for the Marlins, he almost always pitches well enough to give his team a chance considering that Miami is now 17-5 overall in the last 22 games that he has started!
Add this all up and Alvarez appears to give Miami good value as a small underdog visiting the Big Apple on Wednesday.
MLB Pick: Marlins +102