AL's Starting Pitchers with Top Betting Value July 21-28

Ross Benjamin

Monday, July 21, 2014 2:46 PM UTC

Monday, Jul. 21, 2014 2:46 PM UTC

We’ll examine three top shelf American League starting pitching matchups this week, and simplify your sports betting a bit more than usual in these instances. Read our revealing take on these head-to-head battles, and then make your MLB wagering day a profitable one.


Wednesday 7/24
Boston Red Sox (Buchholz) vs. Toronto Blue Jays (Dickey) 7:07 PM ET
The Red Sox will go with right-hander Clay Buchholz on the mound in this one. He’s been a far cry from the pitcher that went 12-1 with an excellent 1.74 ERA a season ago. Similar to last year, Buchholz has seen his season be derailed a bit by an injury that forced him to the disabled list. His whole body of work in 2014 has been less than impressive, as he gone 7-8 against the money line, with a lofty 5.46 ERA, and 1.52 WHIP. However, he’s shown positive signs in recent starts. In his last 4-outings he’s posted a stellar 2.86 ERA, a 0.85 WHIP, and struck out 24 while walking just 1. He’s gone 1-1 against the money line versus Toronto this season with a shaky 5.56 ERA and 1.77 WHIP.

The Blue Jays counter with right-handed knuckleballer R.A. Dickey. It’s seems like light years ago since Dickey had that memorable 20-6 season that earned him the National League Cy Young award while a member of the Mets. The truth of the matter is that was attained just 2-seasons ago, and he hasn’t resembled the same pitcher since being signed to a lucrative deal with the Blue Jays before the 2013 season. Dickey has gone 9-12 against the money line this season with a decent 3.95 ERA. He’s had far better luck at home in 2014 where he’s a profitable 7-4 versus the money line. Dickey has seen 7 of his last 8-starts stay under the total, including his last 4 when he posted a very good 2.89 ERA, and 1.00 WHIP in those outings. He was very sharp in his only start versus the Red Sox this season, allowing 1 earned run, 5-hits, and struck out 6 while walking none during a 7-1 win. 

Advantage: I’m giving the smallest of leans toward R.A. Dickey of Toronto over Clay Buchholz of Boston.


Thursday 7/24
Detroit Tigers (Scherzer) vs. Los Angeles Angels (Richards) 10:05 PM ET

The Tigers will send the 2013 American League Cy Young winner Max Scherzer to the mound on Thursday evening. The Tigers ace has gone 14-6 against the money line this season with a solid 3.34 ERA. He’s been in very good form over his last 5-starts going 4-1 against the money line with an excellent 1.87 ERA. He’s started one game versus the Angels this season, and was sharp in going 7.0 innings, while allowing 1 earned run on just 3-hits during a 5-2 win.

Garret Richards will take the mound for the Angels. The 26-year old right-hander in his 4th MLB season has been the unquestioned best pitcher on the Angels staff this season. He’s gone a terrific 15-5 against the money line, with a superb 2.47 ERA, and 1.01 WHIP. He enters this start in excellent form over his last 3-outings, posting a microscopic 0.81 ERA, and had an almost 7:1 strikeout to walk ratio.

Advantage: I’m giving the small edge to the hotter of the 2 starters in this one, and go with Garrett Richards over Max Scherzer.


Friday 7/25
Boston (Lester) vs. Tampa Bay (Price) 7:10 PM ET

The Red Sox go with veteran southpaw John Lester on the hill in this AL East battle. The ace of the Red Sox staff has gone 13-7 against the money line this season, with a very good 2.50 ERA, and a better than 4:1 strikeout to walk ratio.  He’s been terrific in going 7-0 in his last 7 versus the money line while displaying excellent form in the process. In those previous 7-starts Lester has posted a 0.85 ERA, and a better than 6:1 strikeout to walk ratio. Lester has seen the last 4, and 6 of his last 7-starts go under the total. He’s made 1-start versus the Rays this season and was brilliant. In that outing, he went 7.0 innings, allowed 0 earned runs, struck out 12, and walked 1 during a 4-0 win.

The Rays will send a red-hot southpaw ace of their own to the mound in David Price. Price has gone 5-0 in his last 5 against the money line, with a paltry 0.90 ERA, a 0.83 WHIP, and a 5:1 strikeout to walk ratio. He’s seen 7 of his last 8-starts go under the total. Price has gone 13-8 against the money line for the season, while posting a 3.06 ERA, and a better than 8:1 strikeout to walk ratio. Price has had impeccable control this season walking just 1 man per 7.4 innings pitched. He’s gone 1-1 against the money line versus the Red Sox in 2014 with a 4.20 ERA.

Advantage: This starting pitching matchup is dead even in my eyes. With both of these pitchers red-hot right now, I’m forecasting a 1-0 or 2-1 type of game. I would suggest taking a glance at going under the total in this one. One last piece of advice, shop around for the best MLB odds before making your next bet.

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