This a rare play for me but I like the matchup today so I will be backing the New York Yankees on the run line of -1.5 against the Baltimore Orioles. There is some pretty good plus money value on this line taking the Yankees team that seems to always rough up starter for Baltimore Ubaldo Jimenez. I suggest adding New York on the run line for one of your MLB picks today.
I grabbed this line pretty early so it is not completely settled across the board. At the books I have found of -1.5 on the Yankees they are at around +160. The best MLB odds I have seen are at Heritage Sports at +166.
Ubaldo Jimenez gets the start for Baltimore and comes in with a 4.24 ERA, 1.39 whip, 138 strikeouts, and a 10-9 record. His last time out in New York he got shelled for seven earned runs in just two innings. But this is not the main reason why like this play, mainly I like the Yankees in this spot because they seem to always hit Jimenez hard. In his past three seasons prior to this year he has a 6.16 ERA and a 1-4 record in six games pitching against New York. In those games the Yankees have a solid .300 batting average against him. Most likely he will not come into this game with a lot of confidence and I look for the Yankees to light him up one more time.
Baltimore ranks 10th in the major leagues in runs scored per game at 4.36, 12th in OPS at .726, and 20th in batting average hitting .251 as a team. Two main factors are playing against them today, first of all their offensive statistics go down considerably on the road, and second they are one of the worst hitting teams in the American League against left-handers ranking 13th in OPS at .681. Although they're facing a pitcher just back from injury in Sabathia I don't see them putting up a ton of runs today.
New York Yankees
CC Sabathia gets the start for New York and comes in with a 5.27 ERA, 1.45 whip, 113 strikeouts, and a 4-9 record. This is arguably been his worst season as a major league pitcher and he has really struggled at times. Still, in his last three home games he has pitched better allowing just seven earned runs over 14 innings and keeping the hit totals down allowing just 12 hits in that span. Although I don't think he'll shut down Baltimore completely he should pitch well enough to keep them low in the hit totals and runs.
New York ranks second in the major leagues in runs scored per game at 4.90, third in OPS at .756, and 13th in batting average hitting .255 as a team. Most of their offensive statistics go up at home and they are simply one of the most dangerous hitting teams in baseball, especially in Yankee Stadium. With their success against Jimenez over the past few seasons I look for them to come in with a lot of swagger and score a lot of runs.
Free MLB Picks
There are plenty of reasons like the Yankees today to win this ballgame, but I like them to win it and win it big. As mentioned, this is a rare play for me taking a game on the run line but for one of my MLB picks today I'm going to back the Yankees to get the big win. Look for New York to continue their dominance over Jimenez in this spot, back the run line and the Yankees.
MLB Pick: Yankees Runline at 5Dimes