Add Rays-Yankees 'Over' in First 5 Innings to MLB Picks

Jeff Grant

Wednesday, September 10, 2014 1:32 PM GMT

Jake Odorizzi and Chris Capuano have struggled to limit the long ball this season, which will allow the Tampa Bay Rays and New York Yankees to score early and often Wednesday night. Find out why this leads us to look to the first 5 innings with our MLB picks Wednesday night.

Taking a Bite Out of the Big Apple
Tampa Bay has captured 12 of its last 14 games at Yankee Stadium, including a 4-3 victory as +121 underdogs Tuesday, while pushing up against the betting total of 7.

Rays first baseman James Loney is a lifetime .425 hitter in 19 games at the ballpark, which is important to consider when looking over the MLB odds, while third baseman Evan Longoria’s 12 career home runs here are the most of any visiting player.

Over the last two-plus seasons, the franchise is 28-36 as road underdogs of +100 to +125, with the UNDER going 38-22-4 in that situation.

Check out my MLB Picks: Diamondbacks vs. Tigers article

Crunch Time
New York sits 5.5 games back of the Detroit Tigers for the second American League Wild Card spot, as it looks to improve upon its disappointing 5-9 record against Tampa Bay during the 2014 campaign.

The Yankees will need a major offensive performance from outfielder Jacoby Ellsbury, who has hit safetly in 15 of his past 19 games—batting .361 with five home runs and 14 RBIs over that span.

MLB handicappers will find that the club is 10-7 at home with a money line of -100 to -125, with the UNDER going 10-6-1 in those 17 opportunities.

 

Odorizzi
Rays starting pitcher Jake Odorizzi (10-11, 3.84 ERA) didn’t receive a decision in a 1-0 home defeat to the Toronto Blue Jays last time out, as he scattered three hits over 7.1 shutout innings.

The right-hander is 5-5 with a 5.61 ERA in 12 road games—serving up 13 home runs in just 61 combined frames.

In three career appearances (two starts) versus the Yankees, Odorizzi has compiled a 1-0 record and 4.26 ERA, with his groundball-to-flyball ratio of 0.67 being the second-lowest in the Majors.

 

Capuano
Chris Capuano (2-3, 4.46 ERA) has put together a 1-2 record and 4.40 ERA in eight starts since becoming a member of the Yankees, with the squad capturing his last three trips to the mound.

The left-hander has yet to record a decision in seven games (five starts) in the Bronx this season—posting a 3.82 ERA  and allowing five round trippers in 30.2 combined innings.

In four career games (two starts) versus the Rays, Capuano has produced a 0-1 mark and 5.93 ERA.

 

Prediction
I’m going to recommend that readers play OVER the total in the first five innings as one of their MLB picks, as the Yankees have gone above the number in each of Capuano’s last five efforts.

MLB Pick:  Over First 5 Innings

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