Before placing your MLB pick, keep in mind that Baltimore won the AL East last season, dominating the hated Yankees in the process. They host the Bombers for a three-game series starting tonight.
Yanks-O's Monday Betting Odds
As of mid-Monday morning the best line we could find on Baltimore and lefty Wei-Yin Chen was the -109 in MLB odds, while New York and Michael Pineda could be bet at +106 at YouWager.
Also, some books were listing the total on Monday's game at 7.5 runs, others at eight.
Yanks-O's: Series Set-Up
New York opened this season by dropping two of three games at home to Toronto, then dropped two of three at the Stadium against Boston over the weekend. The Yanks lost Friday night 6-5 in 19 innings, then fell 8-4 Saturday, before avoiding the sweep with a 14-4 victory Sunday night. New York broke loose for seven runs in the first inning Sunday against Sox starter Clay Buchholz, and finished the night with 16 hits, including three homers.
Prior to Sunday night the Yanks had scored just 17 runs through their first five games, while allowing at least six runs in four of their first five contests.
Baltimore began this season by taking two of three games at Tampa, then dropped two of three at home over the weekend to Toronto. The O's lost Friday 12-5, won Saturday 7-1, then lost the series rubber match Sunday 10-7. Baltimore fell down early against the Jays Sunday 7-2, rallied to within 8-7, but couldn't quite complete the comeback.
The Orioles have scored at least five runs in five of their first six games this season.
Last year Baltimore took the season series from New York 13 games to six.
Handicapping the Pitching Match-Up
Chen will be making his second start of this season, after giving up three runs on four hits through 4 1/3 innings of a game Baltimore eventually won 6-5 over Tampa last Tuesday.
Last year, by our tough accounting, Chen only went 14-for-31 on quality starts, but the Orioles went 19-12 for him. Also, the totals trended toward the UNDERS by a 19-11 margin in Chen's starts last season.
Chen started twice against New York last year, giving up six ER and 15 hits through 11 innings. Baltimore split those two games, as did the totals.
Pineda will be making his second start of this season, after holding Toronto to two runs through six innings, walking one while striking out six, in a 4-3 Yankees victory last Wednesday.
Last year, pitching around a long stint on the DL, Pineda went a very respectable nine-for-13 on quality starts, including six for his last eight. In 76 innings of work Pineda only allowed 56 hits, walked just seven batters and struck out 59.
New York went 6-7 in Pineda's starts last year, with the totals leaning toward the UNDERS by an 8-4 margin.
Pineda started twice against the Orioles last year, holding them to just one run and three hits through 12 1/3 innings. The Yanks only managed to split those two games, with the totals going 0-1-1.
New York ranked 12th in the Majors last season in team OPS against left-handed pitchers at .712.
Baltimore ranked sixth in team OPS last year against righties at .732.
These two teams are a combined 9-2 on the totals so far this season.
New York went 24-20 last year against left-handed starters.
Baltimore went 74-47 last year against righties.
Games played at Camden Yards last year only averaged 7.7 runs per game, which to us was surprisingly low, considering the Orioles led the Majors in home runs with 211.
Baltimore C Matt Wieters and shortstop JJ Hardy are both on the DL, and 2B Jonathan Schoop missed Sunday's game with a sore quad, and is questionable for Monday.
Yanks-O's Game 1 Pick
We'll give Pineda the edge in the pitching match-up, and that Baltimore lineup, while scoring some runs so far, is missing a couple of key people. So while the Orioles held the upper hand over New York last year, we'll add the Yanks to our MLB picks today expecting them to get this year's series off to a winning start.
Free MLB Pick: New York +104 at YouWager