Add Angels-Rangers 'Over' 9.5 to MLB Picks

Willie Bee

Tuesday, September 9, 2014 1:37 PM UTC

Tuesday, Sep. 9, 2014 1:37 PM UTC

The Angels begin their final series in Texas on Tuesday night, and SBR is taking a look at the contest with game analysis and a free baseball pick for the matchup.

Four years of disappointment appear to be coming to an end for the Los Angeles Angels.  The Angels are the only team in the majors sporting a win percentage above .600, and they've been deadly this season in Anaheim where they would have home-field advantage throughout the playoffs if they can maintain their current pace.

You will, however, have to excuse manager Mike Scioscia if he isn't counting chickens before they hatch.  He has seen teams fall apart the final few weeks during his tenure as both a player and manager, and he'd like to keep his team focused on the game just ahead of them instead of looking forward to October.

Scioscia would also like to see his team take care of business the next few days as they begin a series in Texas against a Rangers squad that has been the source of some of the frustration the Halos have endured the past few seasons.  Game 1 of the set gets underway Tuesday night in Arlington with an 8:05 PM (ET) first pitch, and features an initial mound duel between Hector Santiago and Colby Lewis.  The Angels opened -160, but SBR's live MLB odds now show that to be in the -140 to -150 range with all online sportsbooks in agreement on a 9.5 run total.

We take a detailed look at this matchup and let you know why we have decided to focus our MLB picks on this game's total.

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'Under' Has Been A Winner In Lone Star State
Los Angles (88-55, +21.8 units, 70-68-5 O/U/P) has been on the road all month with series stops in Houston and Minnesota, plus a makeup game in Cleveland on Monday. The remaining six series on the Angels' schedule are split 3-3 against teams out of the running (2 vs. Texas, 1 more vs. Houston) and teams in contention (2 series vs. Seattle and 1 in Oakland).

Texas (54-89, -33.5 units, 61-72-10 O/U/P) took Monday off after dropping three of four to the Mariners to begin this homestand.  The only highlight over the weekend vs. Seattle was Derek Holland's performance in Sunday's 1-0 victory that snapped an 8-game slide.

After the Rangers won 15 of 19 encounters with LA in 2013, the Angels have turned the tables on Texas this campaign by taking 10 of the first 13 meetings.  The Halos swept four from the Ranger in Texas just before the all-star break, and have a 6-1 advantage in the games played at Globe Life Park where totals have run 2-5 (O/U).


Halos Have Pounded On Lewis In Texas
We saw Santiago last Thursday against the Twins, the stocky lefthander working five innings and allowing four runs in Minnesota.  It was a no-decision for Santiago, but turned out to be a 2nd-straight start that went into the win for the Angels.  He has strung together four consecutive winning decisions after beginning the season 0-7.

Three starts and a relief outing vs. Texas have yielded a 4.42 ERA overall for Santiago.  Los Angeles split the two assignments in Arlington where he has a 3.00 ERA this year.

Lewis owns a 4.50 ERA his last four trips to the hill, and yet totals have run 1-2-1 (O/U/P) in those contests.  His two home assignments vs. the Angels this season were both losses, LA plating 18 runs (13 earned) in his 8.1 innings of work.

Sunny and hot is your Tuesday forecast in the Dallas-Ft. Worth metroplex.  The weatherman says the thermometer will still be in the low-90s at first pitch with a 10-12 mph blow out of the south, wafting over the right field stands and swirling back out to left-center.

While the 'under' has been the trend when the teams get together in Texas this season, 'over' bettors have come out ahead more times than not over the past few years.  That's how I'm going to play this one for my free pick.

MLB Pick: Angels-Rangers Over 9.5 (+100) at 5Dimes

Season: 114-115 (-1.85)

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